راهنمای جذب سرمایه از صندوق
سرمایه گذاری انجازات
فهرست مطالب
1
تعریف شرکت های سرمایه گذار خطر پذیر(VC Fund)
1
2
معرفی صندوق انجازات
6
3
نقش و جایگاه ثنارای در پروژه جذب سرمایه از صندوق انجازات
10
4
شرایط شرکت ها برای جذب منابع مالی از صندوق انجازات و رویکرد شرکت ثنارای
11
5
توصیه های شرکت ثنارای به شرکت های متقاضی جذب سرمایه
12
پیوست شماره1 (Due Diligence)
15
پیوست شماره 2 (روش های تعیین ارزش سهام)
23
پیوست شماره 3 (مراحل انتخاب و معرفی شرکت ها به صندوق انجازات توسط ثنارای)
31
پیوست شماره 4 (Business Plan)
36
1. تعریف شرکت های سرمایه گذار خطر پذیر) (VC1 Fund
در کشورهای پیشرفته یکی از روش های جذب سرمایه به صنایع در حال رشد، ایجاد نهادهای مالی با مشارکت سرمایه گذاران خصوصی است. گروه بندی این سرمایه گذاران خصوصی از شرکت های بیمه، بانک ها، صندوق های بازنشستگی تا اشخاص حقیقی ادامه دارد. تصویر زیر زمان سرمایه گذاری این گونه نهادها را در مراحل رشد شرکت ها نشان می دهد. عموماً VC ها در مراحل توسعه شرکت ها اقدام به سرمایه گذاری می نمایند.
مراحل سرمایه گذاری در سازمان ها
1.1. طبقه بندی سرمایه گذاری همگام با مراحل رشد در شرکت ها
شرکت ها در مراحل مختلف رشد خود نیاز به منابع مالی دارند که عبارتند از:
* Seed Capital ، سرمایه اولیه جهت شروع فعالیت و تبدیل ایده به یک محصول می باشد.
* Start Up، سرمایه مورد نیاز جهت ایجاد تولید نمونه محصول و شروع فعالیت تجاری است.
* Early Stage، سرمایه مورد نیاز جهت تولید انبوه و گسترش فروش شرکت است.
* Second Stage ، سرمایه مورد نیاز برای توسعه بازار و ورود به بازار بورس است.
1.2. شرایط سرمایه گذاری VCها
شرایط و مقاطع سرمایه گذاری VCها به شرح ذیل است :
* VCها در مقاطعی از رشد سازمانی سرمایه گذاری می کنند که ایده اولیه تولید، تبدیل به محصولی قابل فروش شده و شرکت سرمایه پذیر دارای ساختار سازمانی جهت تحقق اهداف فروش و توسعه بازار باشد. (درحالی که معمولا شرکت هایی به دنبال VC ها هستند، که در مراحل اولیه رشد قرار دارند.)
* VC ها در شرکت هایی سرمایه گذاری می کنند که دارای رشد بالقوه یا پتانسیل رشدی بالاتر از متوسط صنعت باشند.
* VCها در صنایعی سرمایه گذاری می کنند که رشد آن ها از متوسط رشد صنایع دیگر بالاتر باشد.
* VC ها به دلیل پذیرش خطر سرمایه گذاری، بازدهی بالایی را از آنها انتظار دارند به گونه ای که دوره برگشت سرمایه گذاری ایشان بین 3 الی 7 سال باشد و ایشان بتوانند طی این مدت سرمایه خود را از شرکت سرمایه پذیر خارج نمایند.
* روش های پیش بینی برای خروج VC ها از سرمایه گذاری های انجام شده عموما عرضه سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار ، ادغام یا فروش سهام به شرکت های دیگر است.
* سرمایه گذاران خطر پذیر معمولا بخشی از سهام و کنترل شرکت سرمایه پذیر را در اختیار خود نمی گیرند و از آن چشم پوشی می کنند.
* VC ها عموما 20% الی 25% بازده سالیانه برای سرمایه گذاری خود انتظار دارند.
* مبالغی که ایشان وارد یک شرکت می کنند بین 500 هزار الی 5 میلیون دلار می باشد.
به طور کلی عوامل جذب VC ها به شرکت ها ، عبارتند از:
* تیم مدیریت و سوابق اجرایی درخشان آنان
* بازار هدف متمرکز (Niche Market)2 برای محصولات شرکت و حضور موفق دراین بازار به عنوان نفر اول
* وجود برنامه مدون توسعه همراه با تخمین نیازهای مالی، انسانی
* شناخت دقیق از بازار هدف
* شناخت دقیق از رقبا و شیوه مقابله با آنان
1.3. مراحل جذب سرمایه
مراحل جذب سرمایه شامل موارد زیر است:
* معرفی فرصت های سرمایه گذاری
* تهیه "برنامه کسب و کار"(BP) 3
* ارزیابی توسط شرکت سرمایه گذار (توانایی تیم مدیریت، برنامه بازاریابی، محصولات، برنامه مالی)
* ارزیابی ارزش سهام شرکت سرمایه پذیر و توافق بر شیوه حضور شرکت سرمایه گذار در شرکت سرمایه پذیر، میزان خرید سهام، مالکیت و مسائل حقوقی
مراحل جذب سرمایه و ارزیابی توسط شرکت سرمایه گذار
1.4. فرآیند بررسی جهت تامین مالی VC ها
فرآیند بررسی شرکت سرمایه پذیر توسط VC ها و یا سایر سرمایه گذاران شامل مراحل زیر می باشد:
الف) ارزیابی اولیه
در اولین گام، اقدام به تشریح ماهیت و مراحل "برنامه کسب و کار" می شود. در حقیقت این برنامه تصویری است که شرکت از آینده خود ترسیم کند و هدف اصلی از تهیه آن، تعیین اهداف کمی و عملیاتی قابل اندازه گیری، برای مدیریت و سرمایه گذاران بالقوه و ایجاد ابزاری برای کنترل و اندازه گیری میزان موفقیت شرکت در تحقق اهداف تعیین شده است. برنامه کسب و کار به طور خلاصه حاوی اطلاعات زیر می باشد:
* خلاصه شرکت (Company Overview): در این قسمت به طور خلاصه ای از دلایل تشکیل شرکت، محصولات و ویژگی های خاص آن، بازارها و ایده های خاص موجود، درج می شود.
* کالا و خدمات: در این بخش توضیح کاملی درباره کالاها، خدمات ارائه شده توسط شرکت و ویژگی هایی که آن ها را از محصولات مشابه، مجزا می سازد ارائه می شود و نیز ارتباط محصولات تولید شده با نیاز بازار و بازارهای هدف معرفی شده و در مورد مجوزهای صنعتی و "حق امتیاز شرکت" (patent) نیز توضیح داده می شود.
* تجزیه و تحلیل بازار (Market Analysis): در این بخش بر تحقیق بازار، تحلیل صنعت و مشتریان تاکید می شود. اطلاعات صنعت باید شامل رقبا، قیمت، حجم بازار، تقسیم بندی بازار، پیشرفت های تکنولوژیک، قوانین دولتی و روندهای آتی باشد. تحقیقاتی نیز باید در رابطه با تعداد مصرف کنندگان بالقوه، قدرت خرید آن ها و . . . انجام شود. این تحقیقات، منشاء پیش بینی فروش و استراتژی های قیمت گذاری که با سایر استراتژی های بازاریابی مرتبط هستند، خواهد بود.
* برنامه بازاریابی: در این قسمت برنامه های توسعه بازار شرکت به طور کامل مطرح می شود. سه سرفصل مهم در مورد برنامه های بازاریابی عبارتند از :
* سیاست قیمت گذاری (استراتژی های تعیین قیمت)
* شیوه فروش و توسعه بازار (شامل فروش مستقیم، فروش از طریق نمایندگی و . . . )
* برنامه های تبلیغاتی و پیش برد فروش
* رقابت: در این بخش، در مورد شیوه رقابت شرکت با دیگران برای توسعه بازار، سیاست رقبا و محصولات آن ها به طور کامل، توضیح داده می شود. نکته بسیار مهم در این مبحث، شناخت شرکت از وضعیت رقبا در بازار است.
* مدیریت و مالکیت: یکی از مهمترین ملاک های شرکت های سرمایه گذار خطرپذیر تیم مدیریت شرکت های سرمایه پذیر است. تیمی که مدیریت شرکت را بر عهده دارد باید توانایی های لازم را برای تحقق اهداف تعیین شده بر اساس برنامه زمان بندی داشته باشد، لذا ارائه اطلاعات ذیل ضروری است:
* معرفی تیم بازاریابی
* معرفی تیم فروش
* معرفی تیم تولید
* معرفی تیم مالی
در این بخش اعضاِی تیم مدیریت و توان اجرایی آن ها، به طور کامل تشریح می شود.
* عملیات: در این بخش در مورد نحوه عملکرد شرکت، محل استقرار تولید، دسترسی به بازار، نیروی کار، سرمایه و امکانات تولیدی توضیح داده شده و امکانات تولیدی با نیازهای بازار مورد سنجش قرارمی گیرد. برای مثال چنانچه 25% رشد در فروش شرکت پیش بینی شده باشد، آیا منابع موجود، امکان تحقق آن رشد را به ما می دهد یا خیر.
* بخش مالی: هدف از ارائه اطلاعات مالی، ارائه دورنمایی از هزینه ها و درآمدهای شرکت در صوت تحقق اهداف تعریف شده است. اطلاعات مالی از یک طرف به عنوان Milestone4 هایی که می تواند به وضوح اندازه گیری شوند، در نظر گرفته شده و از طرف دیگر تصویر روشنی از "توان شرکت در برگشت سرمایه سرمایه گذاران" و "پوشش نرخ بازده مورد توقع سرمایه گذاران" ارائه می کند. معمولا در بخش مالی ترازنامه، سود و زیان و جریان های نقدی شرکت برای 3 الی 5 سال آتی مورد پیش بینی قرار می گیرد و می تواند مبنایی برای تعیین ارزش شرکت باشد.
ب) ارزیابی قانونی (Due Diligence)
دراین فرآیند VCها به بررسی اطلاعات ارائه شده توسط شرکت سرمایه پذیر می پردازند. ریز موارد مطرح شده در برنامه کسب و کار توسط کارشناسان و مشاوران شرکت سرمایه گذار مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار می گیرد. مدت این فرآیند با توجه به طرح و پیشنهاد می تواند بسیار طولانی باشد. (اطلاعات بیشتر در این رابطه، در پیوست شماره 1 آورده شده است.)
2. معرفی صندوق انجازات
بدون شناخت کامل از ضوابط سرمایه گذاری صندوق سرمایه گذاری انجازات، ایجاد زبانی مشترک برای برقراری ارتباط با شرکت های متقاضی با هدف جذب سرمایه، کاری غیرممکن خواهد بود. لذا محورهای زیر برای استفاده بهتر از امکانات صندوق انجازات تشریح می شود:
2.1. سهام داران اصلی
سهام داران اصلی صندوق سرمایه گذاری انجازات از شرکت ها و نهادهای ذیل تشکیل شده اند:
* " شرکت سرمایه گذاری خارجی ایران"(IFIC) 5
* " شرکت سهامی اسلامی برای توسعه بخش خصوصی"6(ICD) که وابسته به "بانک توسعه اسلامی"(IDB) 7 است و از دو نهاد "موسسه اعتباری چند جانبه عربستان سعودی با سرمایه 1 میلیارد دلار"(SEDCO) 8و " نهاد 6 میلیارد دلاری برای توسعه که توسط 53 کشور عضو" به وجود آمده است.
* " مرکز اعتباری خلیج(GFH)9 که مجموعه گسترده ای از سهام داران بوده و دارای سرمایه گذاران خصوصی در کشورهای خلیج فارس و آفریقای شمالی است.
سرمایه کل
سرمایه ثبتی:
50 میلیون دلار
مبلغ پرداخت شده توسط شرکاء:
6/43 میلیون دلار
درصد سهام سهام داران اصلی
GFH
25%
ICD
25%
IFIC
10%
IDB
10%
SEDCO
10%
2.2. ماموریت صندوق
ماموریت شرکت سرمایه گذاری انجازات عبارت است از: مشارکت در " فرآیند توسعه فناوری اطلاعات در منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا" از طریق انجام سرمایه گذاری های منطبق با اصول شریعت اسلامی.
2.3. اهداف سرمایه گذاری
* افزودن ارزش شرکت های سرمایه پذیر از طریق افزایش سرمایه
* سرمایه گذاری در طیف وسیعی از شرکت های مولد فنآوری
* کمک به توسعه بخش های اقتصادی مرتبط با فنآوری در کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا
2.4. شرکت های هدف
* شرکت های مولد فنآوری ( درزمینه های سخت افزارونرم افزاررایانه و سخت افزارونرم افزارشبکه)
* شرکت های مخابراتی ( در زمینه های مخابرات داده، صوت وتصویر، مخابرات ثابت ومتحرک و تجهیزات مخابراتی)
* اینترنت (در زمینه های ISP10ها، فراهم کنندگان محتوا برای وب، تجارت الکترونیکی، شرکت های مشاوره وب و شرکت های مشاور در زمینه فناوری اطلاعات)
لازم به ذکر است که شرکت مورد نظر باید در یکی از کشورهای هدف، فعالیت نموده و اکثر سهام آن متعلق به بخش خصوصی باشد. درضمن صندوق می تواند در شرکت هایی که خارج از کشورهای هدف، فعال هستند نیز در صورت نیاز سرمایه گذاری نماید، مشروط بر این که بازار هدف شرکت، یکی از کشورهای مورد نظر باشد.
2.5. کشورهای مورد نظر
کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا
2.6. فعالیت های مورد نظر
* خرید دارایی
* خرید شبه دارایی
* از طرف دیگر صندوق می تواند برای شرکت سرمایه پذیر از منابع مالی دیگری، وام های کوتاه مدت جهت خرید تجهیزات و ماشین آلات، تهیه نماید.
2.7. دوره سرمایه گذاری
* حداکثر دوره سرمایه گذاری (زمان بازگشت سرمایه و برداشت آن) بین سه تا پنج سال است.
* مدت دقیق سرمایه گذاری بر اساس شرایط خاص شرکت سرمایه پذیر تعیین می شود.
* صندوق در زمانی که احساس کند بیشترین نرخ برگشت سرمایه را بدست خواهد آورد، اقدام به خروج سرمایه خواهد نمود.
2.8. مبلغ سرمایه گذاری
* حداقل مبلغ سرمایه گذاری صندوق برابر با یک میلیون دلار است.
* حداکثر سرمایه گذاری صندوق پنج میلیون دلار است. در صورت سرمایه گذاری چنین مبلغی صندوق مقدار سهام لازم برای کنترل شرکت را خواهد خواست، اما این سهام هیچ گاه از 49% سهام شرکت تجاوز نخواهد نمود.
* هیات مدیره ممکن است بسته به مورد، مجوز خرید بیش از 51% سهام یک شرکت را نیز صادر نماید.
2.9. عوامل تاثیرگذار در سرمایه گذاری
* تطبیق با شریعت اسلامی
* خطرات مربوط به سرمایه گذاری مورد نظر
* نوع و شیوه سرمایه گذاری
* سطح سرمایه گذاری
* هدف از سرمایه گذاری
* راهبردها و راه های خروج
* تاریخچه شرکت و سوابق مالی آن
* مدیریت شرکت
* زمانی که سهام داران سرمایه خاصی را برای خطر کردن در نظر می گیرند
* توانایی های فنی
* موقعیت در صنعت و رقابت پذیری
* دوره حیات فرآورده
* ثبات سیاسی
* پیش بینی جریان نقدینگی همراه با آنالیز حساسیت
* فرضیات منطقی
* درآمدهای پایدار
* وضعیت شرکت از نظر دارایی های خالص
* ارتباط با خریداران راهبردی شرکت
* ارزیابی های صنعت از شرکت (در صورت وجود)
* ارزیابی فنی
* خوش نامی سهام داران
3. نقش و جایگاه ثنارای در پروژه جذب سرمایه از صندوق انجازات
شرکت ثنارای با توجه به شناخت کامل " اصول جذب سرمایه از شرکت های VC " و " مبانی سرمایه گذاری صندوق انجازات" آماده ارائه خدمات زیر به شرکت های فعال در بخش صنایع نوین است:
* معرفی صندوق سرمایه گذاری انجازات و شرایط آن
* بررسی شرکت ها و تعیین شرکت هایی که از حداقل شرایط لازم برخوردار هستند.
* ارزیابی شرکت های منتخب و کمک به تهیه برنامه کسب و کار مناسب
* ارسال درخواست سرمایه گذاری به صندوق انجازات و پی گیری های بعدی آن
* ارائه مشاوره به شرکت ها، پس از تصمیم گیری نهایی صندوق
( روش های تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت ها "به ویژه شرکت های نرم افزاری" ، روش صندوق انجازات در تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت های نرم افزاری و نیز روش تعیین ارزش سهام توسط شرکت ثنارای، در پیوست شماره 2 به تفضیل آورده شده است. )
4. شرایط شرکت ها برای جذب منابع مالی از صندوق انجازات و رویکرد شرکت ثنارای
شرکت های علاقه مند جهت استفاده از منابع صندوق انجازات باید حداقل دارای شرایط ذیل باشند:
* ارائه محصولات و خدمات مناسب و متمرکز در زمینه فنآوری اطلاعات
* مدیریت مطلوب و موثر از نظر اقتصادی
* داشتن سیستم حسابداری مطلوب
* داشتن برنامه مدون استراتژیک
* همه ساله صورت های مالی شرکت به تائید حسابرس مستقل رسیده باشد.
* شرکت دارای سهام با نام باشد و 100% مبلغ اسمی آن پرداخت شده باشد و در صورتیکه دارای سهم الشرکت است، سهم الشرکت شرکا، مشخص و مبلغ آن تودیع شده باشد.
* دوره برگشت سرمایه شرکت حداقل 3 و حداکثر 5 سال باشد.
* نرخ بازده سرمایه گذاری سالیانه حداقل 20% باشد.
* برنامه توسعه مشخصی را دنبال کند.
با توجه به مطالب مذکور، رویکرد شرکت ثنارای در جذب سرمایه از صندوق انجازات در گرو انتخاب شرکت های مناسبی است که توان جذب سرمایه گذاری خارجی را داشته باشند. این مهم در دو فاز دنبال می شود:
* مطالعه و بررسی شرکت های متقاضی جذب سرمایه گذاری خارجی که در این فاز شناسایی شده و با توجه به معیارهای مورد نظر عموم VC ها، بخصوص صندوق فنآوری انجازات، شرکت های مستعد، انتخاب و در دستور کار قرار می گیرند.
* مطالعه و بررسی شرکت هایی که به طوربالقوه، دارای استعدادهای جذب سرمایه گذاری خارجی هستند ولی شرایط لازم را در برخی زمینه ها ندارند؛ این شرکت ها در زمینه های مورد نظر آماده سازی شده و در دستور کار نهایی قرار می گیرند.
( شرح کامل مراحل انتخاب و معرفی شرکت ها به صندوق انجازات توسط ثنارای در پیوست شماره 2 آورده شده است. )
5. توصیه های شرکت ثنارای به شرکت های متقاضی جذب سرمایه
توصیه های شرکت ثنارای به شرکت های متقاضی در قالب چهار موضوع طبقه بندی شده است:
* شرکت و مدیریت
* محصول
* مدل کسب و کار
* شیوه خروج از سرمایه گذاری
5.1. شرکت و مدیریت
پیرو مذاکرات حضوری با مسئولین صندوق انجازات، بر ماهیت شرکت و مدیریت آن به عنوان یکی از مهمترین شاخص های ارزیابی شرکت ها تاکید شده است. تحقق هر ایده ای در گرو تخصص و تبحر افرادی است که در پیاده سازی آن درگیر هستند. ایجاد سازوکارهای لازم برای جذب افراد مورد نیاز و بهره گیری از توانایی های آنان، یکی از فاکتورهای موفقیت در هر سازمانی است. استفاده از افراد با سابقه و با تجربه، ایمان و اعتقاد به موفقیت طرح های شرکت را در نزد شرکت های سرمایه گذار تقویت می کند.
وجود ساختاری مطابق با استانداردهای بین الملل مانند بهره گیری از استانداردهای ISO نیز نشان دهنده جهت گیری شرکت برای حضور در بازارهای بین الملل است.
در نتیجه شرکتی در پروسه جذب سرمایه موفق خواهد بود که حداقل دارای شرایط زیر از دید ساختاری باشد:
* برنامه استراتژی مدون
* اهداف تعریف شده
* برنامه کسب و کار جهت تحقق اهداف
* چارت سازمانی ضروری جهت تحقق اهداف
* تیم مدیریت قوی
* سیستم حسابداری استاندارد و قابل بازرسی
5.2. بازار و محصول
تدوین استراتژی بازاریابی و فروش شرکت، نیازمند شناخت کاملی از بازار و رقبا، است. لذا انجام تحقیقات بازار در بدو کار ضروری است. ارائه تصویری از بازار و چگونگی ورود و حفظ موقعیت در آن از بایدهای هر شرکت متقاضی سرمایه است. معرفی رقبا و شیوه رقابت با آن ها و تدوین سناریوهای پیش بینی آینده، با توجه به شناخت آنان و تمرکز بر عمل و عکس العمل ها نیز حائز اهمیت می باشد. پیش بینی میزان و چگونگی فروش محصول شرکت در کل دنیا و روند رشد آن نیز می تواند در دیدگاه های مربوط به ورود به بازارهای جهانی، موثر باشد. از این رو پیروی از اصول ذیل، برای موفقیت در پروسه جذب سرمایه ضروری است:
* تدوین برنامه بازاریابی
* قیمت گذاری رقابتی
* انجام تحقیقات بازار
* داشتن مزیت رقابتی در محصول
* فراهم آوردن بازار مناسب در داخل کشور
* تدوین برنامه توسعه برای داخل و خارج از کشور
* الگوبرداری (Benchmarking) از شرکت ها و محصولات مشابه خارجی
* تعیین جایگاه شرکت در بازارهای داخلی و خارجی
5.3. مدل کسب و کار
هر شرکتی برای تحقق درآمد، نیاز به یک مدل کسب و کار دارد. مدل موفق، مدلی است که با تکیه بر استراتژی های شرکت در مورد بازاریابی و فروش، منابع داخلی و شناخت کامل از مزیت های رقابتی شرکت در تعامل با نیاز نهادهای ذینفع خارجی تهیه شده باشد. تعیین مدل کسب و کار در زمینه های زیر ضروری است:
* شیوه استفاده از کانال های توزیع و درصدهای تخفیف
* شیوه جذب نماینده در داخل و خارج و تعیین درصدهای تخفیف
* مدل فروش مستقیم
* مدل فروش غیر مستقیم
* مدل حضور در خارج از کشور
* مدل مشارکت با دیگران
5.4. شیوه خروج یا چگونگی خروج سرمایه گذاری از شرکت
یکی از دغدغه های شرکت های سرمایه گذاری، شناسایی شیوه خروج از شرکت سرمایه پذیر در زمان مورد نظر است. ازاین رو باید شرکت سرمایه پذیر، با ارائه برنامه ای مشخص و مبتنی بر واقعیت، درونمای این مسئله را به وضوح درنظرگیرد. با توجه به عدم حضور شرکت های نرم افزاری در بازار بورس ایران، باید راه کاری دیگری در این رابطه ارائه شود. لذا داشتن برنامه های مختلف بر اساس واقعیت برای خروج سرمایه گذار می تواند پروسه سرمایه گذاری را تسهیل نماید.
در فرآیند جذب سرمایه از هر VC، مشارکت کلیه واحدهای سازمانی اعم از مدیران عالی، هیات مدیره، مدیران مالی و اداری، مدیر فروش و بازاریابی و . . . برای تهیه برنامه کسب و کار و اطلاعات تکمیلی ضروری است. لازم به ذکر است که زمان مورد نیاز برای تهیه برنامه کسب و کار و ارزیابی سهام شرکت متقاضی، کاملا تابع سیستم های اطلاعاتی موجود در داخل شرکت متقاضی و دقت در ارائه آن ها در زمان معین و مشخص می باشد.
(اطلاعات تکمیلی درباره نحوه تهیه برنامه کسب و کار(BP) در پیوست شماره 4 آورده شده است.)
پیوست شماره 1
Due Diligence: Study Areas
by Vadim Kotelnikov & Ten3 East-West
Factors that are Analyzed and Verified during Due Diligence
* Track record of the management team
* Size and growth potential of the market
* Demand for product among target customers
* Ability to deliver product on time and at agreed price
* Competitive advantage of product
* Competitors
* Marketing and distribution plans
* Soundness of financial projections
* Assessment of assumptions used
* Assessment of intellectual property rights, if any
* Existing or possible legal contingences
* Valuation for the venture.
Due diligence is a form of research conducted by investors to make certain they're are getting exactly what they agreed to buy. For the venture capital investment process, due diligence means a rigorous investigation and evaluation of an investment opportunity before committing funds. This investigation is conducted by the parties involved in preparing a registration statement to form a basis for believing the statements contained therein are true and that no material facts are omitted. This process includes review of its management team, business conditions, projections, philosophy, and investment terms and conditions.
Absolutely vital to making a sound investment, due diligence verifies any business opportunities that survive the initial screening stage. For venture capital investments, as few as 10-15% of proposals make it past the initial screening stage to the full due-diligence process, and only 10% of those receive funding. This verification process consists of checking the accuracy of business plans, audited accounts, and management accounts; getting replies to warranty and other standard questionnaires; patent searches; and technical studies. Unpublished accounting information and subjective information are equally important; these data are collected by calling customers, suppliers, lawyers, and bankers, and by checking trade journals. Due diligence emphasizes understanding and quantifying the risk of the proposed deal, rather than the upside.
Due Diligence Study Areas
Management
Chief Executive Officer; Number Two & Three in Management; Management as a Team; Organizational Structure & Decision-making; Management Characteristics; Corporate Ownership; Documentation; Management Reports; Strengths & Weaknesses
Personnel
Corporate Organization; Employee Compensation; Profit-sharing Plan; Bonus Plan; Payroll Records; Training Program; Attitude and Morale; Record Maintenance; Reports; Motivation; Hiring Procedure; Consultants; Ratio Analysis
Marketing
Marketing People; Products; Customer Description; Customer Service; Competitive Analysis; Industry Analysis; Marketing Strategy; Product Distribution
Production
Production Management; Personnel and Organization; Production Process; Purchasing, Suppliers, Shipping, and Receiving; Efficiency Analysis; R&D
Financial Area
Management, Personnel, and Organization; Cash and Investment Management; Documentation; Analysis of Financial Operations; Financial Statement Analysis; Other Assets and Liabilities; Taxes; Analysis of Projections
Reference Area
General information about the company; Reference List: Bank, Other Institutional Lenders; Accounting Firm; Law Firm; Suppliers; Customers; Competitors; Agents, Consultants, Stakeholders, Trade Associations, Brokers
Sample Due Diligence Request List
by Venture Planning Associates. Prepared for San Diego Regional Technology Alliance Conference. Used by permission.
MEMORANDUM FOR XYZ.COM
Set forth below is a list of the documents we would like to review for due diligence purposes in connection with the proposed purchase of shares of preferred stock of XYZ.com (the "Company").
All documents requested below are with respect to the Company, its subsidiaries and any joint ventures involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries and should be provided with respect to all periods since the founding of the Company, unless otherwise specified.
The list represents a standard due diligence request list and attempts to be over-inclusive rather than under-inclusive. We understand, therefore, that certain items may not be appropriate to the Company, its subsidiaries and joint ventures, and others may need to be added as we become more familiar with the Company, its subsidiaries and joint ventures.
I. Corporate Books and Records
II. Financial Information
III. Employee Materials
IV. Contingent Liabilities
V. Contracts, Agreements, and Other Arrangements
VI. Proprietary Rights
VII. Plant, Property, and Equipment
VIII. Insurance
IX. Sales / Marketing
X. Miscellaneous
I. CORPORATE BOOKS AND RECORDS
A. Charter and By-laws
1. Original certificate of incorporation of the Company and all amendments thereto
2. By-laws of the Company, as amended
3. Charter and by-laws of each wholly or partially owned subsidiary of the Company and of any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries
4. Closing record books for any material corporate transactions (e.g., reorganization into holding company structure, joint ventures, etc.)
5. Other relevant legal documents governing the organization and management of the Company
B. Minutes of meetings and unanimous written consents (since date of incorporation) of the Company, any of its subsidiaries and any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries, of the following:
1. Shareholders
2. Board of Directors
3. Executive Committee
4. Audit Committee
5. Any other committees
6. Specific authorizing resolutions
7. Material (including financial projections), if available, distributed to the Board of Directors, or any committees thereof, in connection with the most recent meetings of the Board or such committees
C. Officers' and directors' questionnaires prepared in connection with the most recent proxy statement of the Company
D. Shareholders
1. Shareholder list and other stock records
2. Any shareholder agreements, voting trusts, proxy agreements, escrow agreements or similar arrangements
3. Any stock purchase agreements with shareholders
4. Any agreements relating to preemptive rights or other preferential rights of shareholders
5. Any agreements restricting the sale or other disposition of capital stock
6. Any agreements or plans concerning outstanding or proposed stock options, warrants or rights, including any employee stock ownership plans
7. Any agreements relating to registration rights of shareholders
8. Any trust agreements or other documents if shares are held in fiduciary capacity
E. Qualifications and Registrations
1. List of jurisdictions where qualified as foreign corporation or licensed to do business
2. Any other material governmental qualifications, registrations, business licenses, permits, authorizations, exemptions or security clearances, including those pursuant to Federal or state antitrust, environmental, nuclear regulatory, public utility or public service or securities laws and regulations
F. Reports to Shareholders
1. Annual reports
2. Quarterly and special interim reports since most recent annual report
II. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
A. Financial Statements
1. Consolidated financial statements for all years and interim periods subsequent to the most recent fiscal year end
2. Monthly income statements for most recent 12 months
3. Internal financial (profit and loss, capital expenditures, etc.) projections, and all supporting information
4. Most recent business plan
5. List of any off-balance sheet liabilities not appearing in most recent financial statements (including the notes thereto)
6. Auditors reports ("management letters") and management responses
7. Summary of accounting policies to the extent not disclosed in financial statements
B. Tax Materials
1. Federal, state and municipal returns
2. Description of and documentation relating to any pending issues with tax authorities
3. Tax basis of assets of the Company and of capital stock and assets of its subsidiaries
4. Tax sharing or indemnity agreements
5. Closing letters and closing agreements, appeals reports, tax litigation status, Internal Revenue Service ("IRS") rulings and technical advice memoranda, and any other material IRS documents and tax assessments documents
C. Indebtedness
1. All instruments evidencing debt obligations or lines of credit and all agreements and material correspondence relating thereto
2. Any other actual or contingent indebtedness (e.g., loan guarantees, letters of credit, banker's acceptances, swaps) not reflected in most recent financial statements and all agreements and material correspondence relating thereto
3. List of existing key financing institutions
D. Miscellaneous
1. Schedule of current notes payable/receivable, intercompany advances and description of cash management system
2. Description and listing of current reserves
3. Description of revenue/cost recognition policies
4. Breakdown of selling, distribution, marketing and administrative expenses
5. Explanation of foreign exchange accounting policies, if any
6. Information regarding any indebtedness to the Company or any of its subsidiaries of directors and senior officers
7. Cost of sales breakdown
III. EMPLOYEE MATERIALS
A. Agreements
1. Employment agreements (including, but not limited to, contracts with management personnel or entities affiliated with management personnel)
2. Collective bargaining agreements
3. Consulting agreements
4. Employee handbooks, summaries, guidelines and bulletins
5. Schedules of salaried and hourly employees showing their current compensation rates and breaking out employees by:
a. Geographic location
b. Function
c. Age
d. Years with company
e. Union vs. non-union
f. Participation in employee benefit plans
g. Part-time vs. full-time
6. Description of labor disputes, requests for arbitration or mediation, grievance proceedings, etc.
7. Description of negotiations with any unit or group seeking to become the bargaining unit for employees
8. Employee turnover, absentee history and severance policy
9. Description of any union representation elections
B. Benefit Plans
1. Any pension, supplemental pension, retirement, post-retirement, stock option, severance, incentive, profit-sharing, executive compensation, bonus and other employee benefit plans (and any related trust agreements and insurance or annuity contracts), including information regarding employer stock held thereunder, a schedule of plan assets, a detailed description of the plan (including structure, etc.) and a list of trustees
2. Audit and actuarial studies and reports including summary plan descriptions, annual returns and IRS filings, concerning pension and retirement plans and details of any accrued liabilities not reflected therein
3. List of any asset transfers or other withdrawals, partial wind-ups or contribution holidays with respect to all pension plans
C. Organizational Information
1. Detailed organization chart
2. List of all directors and officers
3. Biographies of senior management and any outside directors
4. Schedule showing number of employees for each year and interim periods
5. List and description of current operations of each key business unit showing:
a. Business purpose
b. Key manager
c. Key markets served
d. Key facilities
IV. CONTINGENT LIABILITIES
A. Litigation
1. List of all pending or threatened litigation, arbitration, administrative or other proceedings involving the Company, any subsidiary or any joint venture involving the Company or any subsidiary, or any officer or director (including parties, remedies sought and nature of action)
2. List and description of all pending or threatened government or other investigations involving the Company, any subsidiary or any officer or director
3. Pleadings and other material documents in material litigation, arbitration and investigations and other proceedings
4. Consent decrees, judgments, etc., under which there are continuing or contingent obligations
5. Letters from lawyers to auditors concerning litigation and other legal proceedings
B. Regulatory Compliance
1. Description of any violations of governmental laws or regulations
2. Material reports to governmental agencies
3. Reports, notices or other correspondence concerning any known or alleged violation of Federal or state antitrust, environmental, nuclear regulatory, public utility or public service or securities laws and regulations
4. Agreements or commitments with governmental entities or other persons relating to clean-up obligations or other environmental liabilities
5. Copies of correspondence between Federal or state government agencies and the Company
6. List of all governmental filings and consents required for a purchase of the stock of the Company
V. CONTRACTS, AGREEMENTS AND OTHER ARRANGEMENTS
A. Not in the Ordinary Course of Business
1. Partnership agreements
2. Joint venture agreements
3. Contracts relating to material business acquisitions or dispositions (by transfer of capital stock or assets), including any separate tax or environmental agreements
4. Stand-still agreements
5. Confidentiality and trade secret agreements
6. Agreements limiting the ability to compete with any other person or to engage in any line of business
7. Corporate transactions with management or directors or affiliates
8. Agreements to provide goods or services at below cost (other than promotional arrangements entered into in the ordinary course of business)
9. Indemnification agreements for directors and officers
10. Any other existing or pending material contracts not in the ordinary course of business
11. Any material correspondence related to the above
12. Closing record books with respect to each transaction
B. In the Ordinary Course of Business
1. Listing and description of key customer contracts
2. Listing and description of key supply contracts
3. Material sales representative, marketing, agency or distributorship agreements
4. Material advertising agreements
5. Material government contracts
6. Agreements entered into or expected to be entered into for material capital expenditures
7. Guarantee agreements
8. Any agreement which contain change-of-control provisions
9. Any contracts or agreements similar to the above which are presently under negotiation
10. Any material correspondence related to the above
VI. PROPRIETARY RIGHTS
A. General
1. List and details of any material intellectual property rights registered or for which applications for registration have been, including, patents, licenses, trademarks, trade names, domain names, copyrights and other intellectual property rights (including technology transfers)
2. Particulars of any license, royalty and other intellectual property agreements (where the Company, any subsidiary or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries is licensor or licensee)
3. List and description of any pending or threatened claims for infringement or other violations of proprietary rights owned or used in the business of the Company, any subsidiary or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries, including any challenges as to the validity, subsistence or ownership of such rights
4. List and description of any suspected or alleged infringement by third parties of intellectual property rights owned by the Company, any subsidiary or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries, or used in their business
5. Arrangements for the disclosure of confidential information (which includes technical and commercial information and know-how which is not in the public domain) either by or to the Company, any subsidiary or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries
6. Details of any agreements with employees and consultants regarding their use of the confidential information of the Company, any subsidiary or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries
7. Agreements, policies or other arrangements relating to proprietary rights of employees in products of the Company, any subsidiary or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries (including royalty or other fee arrangements)
VII. PLANT, PROPERTY AND EQUIPMENT
A. Real Property
1. Description, location and character of all real property owned
2. Material deeds, surveys and other real property title documents
3. List of any material real property mortgages which are not disclosed in most recent financial statements
4. List of all leased real property, including descriptions, terms of leases, sale and leaseback arrangements, options, annual costs, etc.
5. Reporting letters and opinions regarding the acquisition of any material real property
6. List of title insurance policies
B. Personal Property
1. Description, location and character of all personal property owned
2. List of all material leased personal property, including descriptions, terms of leases, options, annual costs, etc.
C. Miscellaneous
1. Description of facilities and plant, including listing of all material fixed assets and accumulated depreciation
2. Any available appraisals
VIII. INSURANCE
A. List and description of all material property, casualty, liability and other insurance policies
B. Any directors' and officers' liability insurance policies
C. Description of present reserves for, and all potential claims with respect to, any self-insurance
D. History of all insured claims including paid, reserved, and related expense amounts (first dollar loss run)
E. Loss runs for workers' compensation and general liability
F. Loss history for any self-insurance (first dollar loss run)
G. Loss prevention/control recommendations made by insurers, brokers or consultants
IX. SALES/MARKETING
A. Description of the markets in which the Company, its subsidiaries or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries operate, identifying the type of customers and the size of the overall market (by value)
B. Identify any customers which account for more than 1% of annual sales of the Company, its subsidiaries or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries or, if there are more than ten such customers, the ten largest customers
1. The quarterly totals of sales
2. Details of current sales order statistics available to management
3. Sales comparison with the industry
4. Copies of standard sales correspondence, returns and allowance material together with samples of all forms of purchase orders, invoices, warranty agreements, guarantees, etc
5. Details of pricing policies and fluctuations
6. Copies of all printed price lists
7. Identification of principal competitors, a description of the basis of competition and the strength and weaknesses of the principal competitors
8. Indication of the relative size of the Company, its subsidiaries or any joint venture involving the Company or any of its subsidiaries within the industry. Details of trade associations relating to the business and any company memberships
9. Details of current advertising program (including copies of all promotional or other material used or capable of use in connection with the business) and the cost of the same and any other promotion programs
10. Details of sales policies and methods of remuneration of sales personnel
11. The policy on giving express product warranties and rights to customers to refunds, exchanges or credits following a purchase and the value of refunds, exchanges or credits given and warranty claims
12. List the 10 largest suppliers
13. Current research and development plans and budgets
14. Correspondence and other documents relating to negotiations with competitors of the Company
15. Consultants', engineers' or management reports and marketing studies relating to broad aspects of the business, operations or products
X. MISCELLANEOUS
A. Press releases
B. Listing and description of subsidiaries, joint ventures, partnerships, etc.
C. Description of any future acquisition or disposition plans
D. Description of any future restructuring plans
Description of Company's information management system, including any future changes planned.
پیوست شماره 2
روش های تعیین ارزش سهام
I. روش های متداول تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت ها
به طور کلی در تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت ها روش های متعددی مورد استفاده قرار می گیرد که برخی از این روش ها مبتنی بر ارزش دارایی ها و برخی دیگر مبتنی برارزش فعلی سودهای آتی شرکت ها است. در ذیل به هر یک از آنها اشاره می شود.
الف) روش ارزشیابی دارایی ها
در این روش ارزش دارایی های واحد اقتصادی، مبنای محاسبه تعیین ارزش قرار می گیرد. به این ترتیب که ارزش کلیه اموال منقول و غیر منقول که تحت کنترل واحد اقتصادی قرار دارند، جداگانه یا گروهی محاسبه شده و سپس ارزش کلیه بدهی های واحد اقتصادی از آن کسر می گردد. برای تعیین ارزش اموال تحت کنترل واحد اقتصادی می توان از موارد زیر استفاده نمود:
* نظر کارشناس رسمی
* نظر کارشناس خبره
* ارزش دفتری دارایی ها که در دفاتر حسابداری واحد اقتصادی ثبت شده است (پس از اعمال تعدیلات لازم بابت مواردی از قبیل تورم و استهلاک دارایی ها)
ارزش روز بدهی ها – ارزش روز دارایی ها به قیمت کارشناسی
( پس از اعمال تعدیلات لازم )
ب) روش سود حسابداری
روش سود حسابداری یکی از روش های رایج تعیین ارزش واحد اقتصادی است. در این روش بر اساس تجزیه و تحلیل بنیادی یا تکنیکی، سود خالص حسابداری پس از کسر مالیات واحد مورد ارزیابی در هر یک از سال های آتی فعالیت آن، بیش بینی شده و سود قابل توزیع بین سهام داران مشخص می شود. سپس با در نظر گرفتن عوامل محیطی، صنعت و عوامل ویژه واحد اقتصادی (به طور کلی ریسک واحد اقتصادی)، نرخ تنزیل مناسب معلوم شده ارزش واحد مورد ارزیابی تعیین می شود.
ج) روش مقایسه ای
در برخی موارد به دلیل نبود اطلاعات یا فزونی هزینه بر منافع، ارزش یک واحد اقتصادی براساس مقایسه با واحدهای اقتصادی مشابه تعیین می گردد. به این منظور در ابتدا معیارهای اصلی موثر بر واحد مورد ارزیابی مشخص می شود و سپس با مقایسه ویژگی های واحد اقتصادی مورد نظر، مقدار معیار یا معیارهای تعیین شده برای واحدهای اقتصادی مشابه مبنای تعیین قیمت قرار می گیرد. متداول ترین معیارهای مورد استفاده در ایران معیار نسبت قیمت به در آمد هر سهم (p/E ) می باشد. در این روش مقایسه ای می توان از معیارهای دیگری مثل نسبت سود به فروش، نسبت سود عملیاتی به دارایی های خالص، نسبت گردش دارایی ها ، نسبت سود خالص به ارزش دفتری و نسبت قیمت به ارزش دفتری نیز استفاده نمود .
د) روش تنزیل جریان های نقدی
در این روش، تاکید اصلی بر جریان های نقدی حاصل برای سرمایه گذارانی است که از بابت سرمایه گذاری خود در شرکت، انتظار کسب بازده دارند. در روش تنزیل جریان های نقدی، ابتدا ارزش فعلی جریان های آتی حاصل برای افراد ذینفع ( شامل اعتبار دهندگان و سهامداران ) مشخص می شود و سپس با کسر ارزش فعلی حقوق مالی افراد ذینفع غیر از سهامداران عادی، ارزش واحد اقتصادی برای سهام داران عادی محاسبه می گردد. روش جریان نقدی آزاد و روش ارزش افزوده اقتصادی ( یا روش سود اقتصادی ) روش هایی هستند که می توان برای تعیین قیمت پایه سهام واحدهای اقتصادی از آنها استفاده نمود.
هـ) مستند سازی و گزارش دهی
فرآیند تعیین قیمت پایه از شروع عملیات آماده سازی و ارزیابی تا تصویب قیمت پایه توسط کمیته فنی (تخصصی ارزیابی قیمت) براساس مدارک و شواهد قابل قبول مرتبط صورت می گیرد. به این منظور در تعیین قیمت پایه در شرکت ذیربط باید کلیه امور انجام شده، در پرونده مربوط طبقه بندی و بایگانی شود. همچنین گزارش تفصیلی ارزیابی و خلاصه گزارش ارزیابی بنا به مورد، باید حاوی اطلاعاتی باشد که درکمیته فنی (تخصصی ارزیابی قیمت ) تعیین می شود.
و) ملاحظات روش های متداول برای ارزیابی شرکت ها
* طرح های در جریان تکمیل
با توجه به اینکه نتایج این طرح ها هنوز در عملکرد مالی واحد اقتصادی ظهور پیدا نکرده و اثر مالی این طرح ها در نظر گرفته نشده است، مخارج انجام شده تا زمان ارزیابی با در نظر گرفتن نرخ تورم و بازده واقعی مورد انتظار محاسبه و به قیمت پایه محاسبه شده برای فعالیت های فعلی افزوده می شود.
* دارایی های (جاری و غیر جاری) غیر عملیاتی
معادل ارزش کارشناسی تمام یا بخشی از دارایی های غیر پولی و ارزش دفتری دارایی های پولی که در جریان فعالیت های شرکت برای کسب سود مورد استفاده قرار نمی گیرد، (در روش هایی که در نظر گرفته نشده) به قیمت پایه اضافه می شود .
* بدهی ها و ذخایر ثبت نشده در دفاتر
مبالغ این اقلام توسط کارشناس مالی برآورد و تعیین شده و در روش های ارزشیابی به نحو مقتضی در نظر گرفته می شود .
* سرمایه گذاری های جاری در شرکت ها
معادل ارزش بازار یا ارزش کارشناس رسمی یا ارزش دفتری (هر کدام که بیشتر است) به قیمت پایه واحد اقتصادی افزوده می شود.
از آنجا که در به کارگیری هر یک از روش های تعیین ارزش سهام محدودیت هایی وجود دارد و نمی توان تمامی روش ها را در مورد یک شرکت اعمال نمود، همواره سعی در استفاده از روش هایی بوده است که بتواند اکثر معیار ها را مورد پوشش قرار دهد.
بطور کلی در شرکت های نرم افزاری که دارایی های ثابت، نقش بسیار بالایی را در خلق ارزش ندارند، استفاده از روش ارزشیابی دارایی ها خیلی کاربرد ندارد. از طرفی در شرکت هایی که از تسهیلات مالی استفاده می نمایند، مزایای اهرمی ایجاد می شود که در شرکت هایی که از این تسهیلات استفاده نمی کنند مزایای مذکور وجود نخواهد داشت.
در شرکت های تولیدکننده نرم افزار در کشور که عمدتا از وام های صندوق های حمایت از صنایع الکترونیک و غیره استفاده می نمایند، استفاده از روش هایی که تنها به سودهای آتی توجه می نمایند موجب می شود تا بخشی از درآمدهای شرکت که صرف بازپرداخت وام و هزینه های مالی می شود، در تعیین ارزش نادیده انگاشته شود. بنابراین در این شرکت ها استفاده از روش هایی که خلق ارزش ناشی از سود و هزینه های مالی را مورد نظر قرار دهند، ضروری به نظر می رسد.
به همین منظور در مدیریت سرمایه گذاری مدرن، روش هایی جهت تعیین ارزش به کار گرفته می شود که به جریان های نقدی آتی که ناشی از سود های آتی و استفاده از اهرم های مالی است، توجه می نماید. عمده ترین این روش ها روش جریانات نقدی آزاد است. در این روش برای محاسبه ارزش شرکت ها از جریانات نقدی آزاد ( که پس از کسر هر گونه پرداخت ضروری جهت سرمایه گذاری و باز پرداخت بابت وام است )، استفاده می شود.
در روش جریان های نقدی آزاد، سود خالص عملیاتی شرکت پس از کسر مالیات محاسبه و نیاز های سرمایه ای شرکت از آن کسر می شود و در نهایت جریان های نقدی آزاد شرکت به دست می آید. ارزش یک شرکت به روش جریان های نقدی آزاد عبارت است از ارزش فعلی جریان های نقدی آزاد آتی شرکت.
بنابراین :
در معادله بالا f.fc.f عبارت است از ارزش فعلی جریان های نقدی آتی و عبارت است از هزینه متوسط موزون سرمایه. عامل زمان نیز که اشاره به مدت زمان تاخیر در ورود جریان های نقدی آزاد دارد، با اندیس t نشان داده می شود.
شرح کامل روش f.fc.f یا جریانات نقدی آزاد در بخش 7 کتاب " در جستجوی ارزش " نوشته آقای Stern Stewart ارائه شده است.
متغیر های اساسی این مدل عبارتند از:
* جریان های نقدی آتی = سود خالص بعلاوه هزینه های غیر نقدی سالهای آتی
* جریان های نقدی آزاد = سود خالص عملیاتی پس از مالیات- افزایش در سرمایه گذاری هادر طی سال
* هزینه متوسط موزون سرمایه = (حقوق صاحبان سهام *نرخ بازده مورد توقع آنها)+(تسهیلات بانکی* نرخ هزینه آن) * (1-t)
* افزایش در سرمایه گذاریها = تفاوت سرمایه اول و آخر دوره
* سود خالص عملیاتی پس از مالیات = سود خالص بعلاوه هزینه های مالی منهای صرفه جویی مالیاتی ناشی از بهره
* سرمایه =کلیه منابع دارای هزینه = کل داراییها منهای بدهیهای بدون بهره
* رشد سرمایه گذاری = مبلغ سرمایه گذاری * نرخ بازده سرمایه گذاری
* نرخ بازده سرمایه گذاری = سرمایه / سود خالص عملیاتی بعد از کسر مالیات
II. تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت های نرم افزاری
شرکت های نرم افزاری عمدتا تفاوت خاصی با سایر شرکت ها دارند:
* این شرکت ها جوان هستند.
* حاشیه سود بالقوه بالایی دارند.
* از رشد بالایی برخوردار هستند.
* ارزش آنها عمدتا مبتنی بر دارایی های نامهشود است.
* این شرکت ها نیازمند استفاده از روش های تعیین ارزش به گونه ای هستند که تفاوت ها و ظرافت های آنها را نمایش دهد.
در کتب ارزیابی سهام به متدهای مبتنی بر جریان های نقدی آتی جهت تعیین ارزش این شرکت ها اشاره شده است.
فصل 28 کتاب"Business Valuation Hand Book Of " نوشته آقایان THOMAS L. WEST, JEFFREY D. JONES به تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت های کامپیوتری خصوصاً نرم افزار اشاره خوبی نموده است. مهمترین استنباطی که از این کتاب می شود تشابه روش مورد استفاده در آن برای تعیین ارزش هست که بسیار نزدیک به روش مورد استفاده در کتب دیگر است.
در ادامه روش های تعیین ارزش شرکت های نرم افزاری در شش قالب، به شرح ذیل تشریح می شود.
الف) تعیین ارزش بر مبنای ضریبی از فروش
در این روش ارزش شرکت برابر با 5 یا 6 برابر فروش آن در نظر گرفته می شود. این روش ساده ترین و عمومی ترین روش می باشد. در این روش درآمدهای شرکت ناشی از موارد ذیل است:
* فروش نرم افزارهای جدید
* حق امتیاز
* خدمات تعمیر و نگهداری
* خدمات مشاوره
* خدمات بازسازی و پشتیبانی و ….
ب) تعیین ارزش بر مبنای نسبت P/E
در این روش ارزش شرکت برابر است با نسبت قیمت تقسیم بر درآمد ضربدر درآمد هر سهم.
لازم به ذکر است که این روش متداول ترین روش ارزیابی سهام شرکت ها در بازار بورس تهران است.
ج) روش جریان های نقدی آزاد
جریانات نقدی آزاد برابر است با وجوه نقد آزادی که شرکت برای پرداخت تعهدات خود دارد ضربدر یک ضریب از پیش تعیین شده مانند ضریب قیمت به درآمد. فرمول اصلی این روش بدین ترتیب است:
د) ارزش جایگزینی
در این روش به هزینه های واقعی یک کمپانی با مشخصات شرکت موجود استناد می شود و عمدتا مبتنی بر معادله ذیل است:
هزینه های سالیانه حقوق و دستمزد برای هر نفرY *(برای مثال 30 نفر) نفر سال X= ارزش جایگزینی
در شرکت های جوان ارزش شرکت برابر است با:
* هزینه کار انجام شده برای توسعه ورژن (نسخه)تکنولوژی موجود
* هزینه های جایگزینی
* ارزش حمایت های انجام شده توسط شرکای تجاری
* هزینه زمان از دست رفته جهت تولید نرم افزار های جدید
هـ) ارزش معاملاتی یک شرکت مشابه
در این روش ارزش شرکت با مقایسه ارزش آن با شرکت های مشابهی که در معرض فروش قرار دارند، تعیین می شود.
و) ارزش فعلی جریان های نقدی آتی
در این روش ارزش شرکت برابراست با ارزش فعلی جریان های نقدی عملیاتی آتی شرکت در سال های آتی.
III. روش صندوق انجازات در تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت های نرم افزاری
صندوق انجازات برای سرمایه گذاری در شرکت هایی که به نوعی در فن آوری اطلاعات فعال هستند، معیار های را استفاده می نماید که نتیجه ای از روش های پذیرفته شده در مدیریت سرمایه گذاری مدرن است . بنابراین، صندوق انجازات در راهنمای تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت ها به مدل f.fc.fیا جریانات نقدی آزاد اشاره و آن را به عنوان مبنای تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت ها تجویز می کند. روش محاسبه ارزش شرکت ها توسط صندوق انجازات دقیقا همان روش فوق است و متغیرهای اساسی آن همان متغیرهای اساسی مطرح درکتب مالی است.
بنابراین:
IV. روش تعیین ارزش سهام توسط شرکت ثنارای
با توجه به اینکه روش های مبتنی بر جریان های نقدی به خصوص جریان های نقدی آزاد در تعیین ارزش سهام شرکت های نرم افزاری مفید است و از آنجا که این روش ها مورد قبول صندوق انجازات نیز می باشند، شرکت ثنارای در تعیین ارزش شرکت های داوطلب برای استفاده از منابع صندوق مذکور، از این روش ها استفاده می کند که عبارتند از:
* روش تنزیل جریانات نقدی آتی
* روش تنزیل جریانات نقدی آزاد
* روش تنزیل سودهای آتی
* استفاده از تجزیه و تحلیل حساسیت در انجام محاسبات مربوط به پیش بینی جریانات نقدی آتی
اجزای تشکیل دهنده جریان های نقدی آزاد و یا جریان های نقدی آتی فوق عبارتند از:
* فروش و درآمدهای 5 سال آتی شرکت ها
* قیمت تمام شده 5 سال آتی شرکت ها
* سود خالص شرکت ها در 5 سال آتی
* سود خالص عملیاتی بعد از مالیات (NOPAT)11 در 5 سال آتی
* سرمایه برای شرکت ها
* هزینه متوسط موزون سرمایه
* افزایش سرمایه گذاری (Increasing capital)
* رشد آتی فعالیت های شرکت
* جریان های نقدی آتی
* تنزیل جریان های نقدی و تعیین ارزش
استفاده از این روش ها نیازمند محاسبه متغیرهای تعیین کننده ارزش است که توسط تهیه کاربرگ های محاسباتی و استفاده از تکنیک های آماری نظیر سری های زمانی، مورد محاسبه قرار می گیرند. پیش بینی متغیرهای مذکور تحت شرایط بدون رشد، با رشد ثابت و متغیر انجام می شود.
پیوست شماره 3
شرح کامل مراحل انتخاب و معرفی شرکت ها به صندوق انجازات توسط ثنارای
متدولوژی، روش کار و مراحل پیشبرد این عملیات، توسط شرکت ثنارای به شرح زیر است:
* بررسی و پی گیری تقاضاها
* بررسی تقاضاهای دریافت شده
* تشکیل پرونده برای هر شرکت متقاضی
* تهیه و ارسال فرم خوداظهاری برای شرکت های متقاضی
* تماس تلفنی و پی گیری جهت دریافت اطلاعات مورد نظر
* اخذ مدارک اولیه
* صورت های مالی حساب رسی شده همراه با یادداشت های پیوست آن برای آخرین سال مالی
* گزارش حساب رسی مستقل و بازرسی قانونی شرکت برای آخرین سال مالی
* گزارش فعالیت هیات مدیره برای سال مورد نظر
* آخرین تراز آزمایشی حساب های شرکت برای سال جاری
* لیست دارایی های ثابت
* لیست و مشخصات تحصیلی و تجربی پرسنل شرکت
* مشخصات پروژه انجام شده و پروژه در دست اجرا
* پیش بینی جریان های نقدی آتی ناشی از اجرای طرح های تولیدی
* طرح تجاری شرکت (در صورت وجود)
* تشکیل پرونده
* مکاتبات با شرکت مورد نظر
* دریافت مدارک از شرکت
* تهیه گزارش از بازدید شرکت
* تهیه خلاصه نظرات کارشناسی
* ارزیابی مقدماتی
پس از دریافت قطعی یک تقاضا و شرکت متقاضی به صورت زیر مورد ارزیابی واقع خواهد شد:
* ارزیابی مقدماتی وضعیت تولید شرکت
* ارزیابی وضعیت بازاریابی و فروش شرکت
* ارزیابی وضعیت پرسنلی شرکت
* ارزیابی وضعیت طرح های توسعه آتی و طرح های تجاری شرکت و گزارش های توجیه فنی و اقتصادی
* ارزیابی مقدماتی وضعیت مالی شرکت شامل پیش بینی های فروش و غیره
* ارزیابی وضعیت دارایی های ثابت مشهود و غیر مشهو0د
* ارزیابی وضعیت دعاوی حقوقی، له و علیه شرکت و بدهی های احتمالی
* ارزیابی وضعیت سرمایه گذاری در سایر شرکت ها
* ارزیابی وضعیت مالیات شرکت متناسب با ذخایر مالیاتی و چگونگی تسویه حساب مالیات سنوات قبل
* ارزیابی وضعیت سفارشات خارجی در مورد واردات قطعات
* ارزیابی وضعیت وام و تسهیلات اعتباری دریافتی یا در شرف دریافت
* بررسی راه های خروج از سرمایه گذاری نظیر فروش شرکت، فروش دارایی ها و…
* مستند سازی تمامی مراحل
* اخذ اطلاعات تکمیلی
* اخذ اطلاعات لازم در تمامی زمینه های فعالیت شرکت
* اخذ اطلاعات مالی سنوات قبل شامل گزارش مالی و فعالیت هیات مدیره برای حداکثر 5 سال قبل
* ریز اطلاعات مربوط به سرمایه گذاری ها و…
* اساس نامه، شرکت نامه
* ریز پیش بینی طرح های تجاری و عملیاتی
* کپی قراردادهای عمده
* اسناد مالکیت دارایی های ثابت
* مستند سازی و بایگانی
* ارزیابی سهام
* جمع آوری اطلاعات در خصوص ارزیابی
* محاسبه نسبت بدهی به دارائی ها
* محاسبه نسبت حقوق صاحبان سهام به دارائی ها
* محاسبه متوسط هزینه بدهی
* محاسبه بازده مورد توقع صاحبان سهام
* محاسبه متوسط موزون سرمایه WACC
* محاسبه سود خالص عملیاتی شرکت NOPAT برای 5 سال آینده
* محاسبه افزایش سرمایه برای 5 سال آینده
* محاسبه جریان آزاد نقدی
* محاسبه ارزش شرکت از روش D.F.C.F
* مستند سازی تمامی مراحل
* تشکیل کمیته ارزیابی
* انجام هماهنگی های لازم
* تهیه فرم دعوت به جلسه
* تشکیل جلسه
* مذاکره و قیمت گذاری بر روی ارزش کلی شرکت و سهام آن
* تهیه گزارش نهایی کسب و کار
* جمع آوری تمامی مستندات
* تکمیل نواقص احتمالی
* تهیه فرمت گزارش مورد قبول صندوق انجازات
* درج مستندات در فرمت مورد قبول صندوق
* ویرایش گزارش
* ترجمه گزارش
* درخواست رسمی از صندوق انجازات برای سرمایه گذاری
* پر کردن فرم های صندوق انجازات برای شرکت ارزیابی شده
* ارسال فرم درخواست برای صندوق انجازات
* دریافت نظر اولیه صندوق در مورد شرکت متقاضی
* پی گیری کار با صندوق
* دریافت نظر صندوق و تهیه و ارسال اطلاعات تکمیلی مورد نیاز
* پی گیری کار با صندوق انجازات
* انجام مذاکرات لازم برای حصول توافق بر سر قیمت سهام
* کمک به نهایی شدن شرایط خرید سهام در شرکت متقاضی
* انجام اقدامات لازم برای تحقق سرمایه گذاری
* انجام بررسی های حقوقی لازم برای تحقق سرمایه گذاری
* برنامه ریزی برای اموری که جهت سرمایه گذاری لازم هستند
* پی گیری انجام امور فوق توسط شرکت متقاضی
* کمک به عقد قرارداد فروش سهام
نمونه ای از جدول مراحل ارزیابی سهام شرکت ها در صفحه بعد، آورده شده است.
Business Planning Chart
by Venture Planning Associates. Used by permission.
How to write a Business Plan for new Venture
Partially adapted from "How to Write a Great Business Plan" by William A. Sahlman, 1997
The author is a Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School in Boston, Massachusetts. He has been closely connected with more than 50 entrepreneurial ventures as an adviser, investor, or director.
The People The Opportunity The Context Risk and Reward The Deal and Beyond
Few ideas of business attract as much attention as new ventures, and few aspects of new-venture creation attract as much attention as the business plan. Countless books and articles in the popular press dissect the topic. A growing number of annual business-plan contests are springing up across the United States, and, increasingly, in other countries. Both graduate and undergraduate schools devote entire courses to the subject. Indeed, judging by all the hoopla surrounding business plans, you would think that the only things standing between would-be entrepreneur and spectacular success are glossy five-color charts, a bundle of meticulous-looking spreadsheets, and a decade of month-by-month financial projections.
Nothing could be further from the truth. In my experience with hundreds of entrepreneurial start-ups, business plan ranks no higher than 2 – on a scale from 1 to 10 – as a predictor of new venture's success. And sometimes, in fact, the more elaborately crafted the document, the more likely the venture is to, well, flop, for lack of a more euphemistic word.
What's wrong with most business plans? The answer is relatively straightforward. Most waste too much ink on numbers and devote too little to the information that really matters to intelligent investors. As every seasoned investor knows, financial projections for a new company – especially detailed, month-by-month projections that stretch out for more than a year – are an act of imagination. An entrepreneurial venture faces far too many unknowns to predict revenues, let alone profits. Moreover, few if any entrepreneurs correctly anticipate how much capital and time will be required to accomplish their objectives. Typically, they are wildly optimistic, padding their projections. Investors know about the padding effect and therefore discount the figures in business plans. These maneuvers create a vicious circle of inaccuracy that benefits no one.
Don't misunderstand me: business plans should include some numbers. But those numbers should appear mainly in the form of a business model that shows the entrepreneurial team has thought through the key drivers of the venture's success or failure. In manufacturing, such a driver might be the yield on a production process; in magazine publishing, the anticipated renewal rate; or in software, the impact of using various distribution channels. The model should also address the break-even issue: At what level of sales does the business begin to make a profit? And even more important, When does cash flow turn positive? Without a doubt, these questions deserve a few pages in any business plan. Near the back.
What goes at the front? What information does a good business plan contain?
If you want to speak the language of investors – and also make sure you have asked yourself the right questions before setting out on the most daunting journey of a businessperson's career – I recommend basing your business plan on the framework that follows. It does not provide the kind of "winning" formula touted by some current how-to books and software programs for entrepreneurs. Nor is it a guide to brain surgery. Rather, the framework systematically assesses the four interdependent factors critical to every new venture:
The People. The men and women starting and running the venture, as well as the outside parties providing key services or important resources for it, such as its lawyers, accountants, and suppliers.
The Opportunity. A profile of the business itself – what it will sell and to whom, whether the business can grow and how fast, what its economics are, who and what stand in the way of success.
The Context. The big picture – the regulatory environment, interest rates, demographic trends, inflation, and the like – basically, factors that inevitably change but cannot be controlled by the entrepreneur.
Risk and Reward. An assessment of everything that can go wrong and right, and a discussion of how the entrepreneurial team can respond.
The assumption behind the framework is that great businesses have attributes that are easy to identify but hard to assemble. They have an experienced, energetic managerial team from the top to the bottom. The team's members have skills and experiences directly relevant to the opportunity they are pursuing. Ideally, they will have worked successfully together in the past. The opportunity has an attractive, sustainable business model; it is possible to create a competitive edge and defend it. Many options exist for expanding the scale and scope of the business, and these options are unique to the enterprise and its team. Value can be extracted from the business in a number of ways either through a positive harvest event – a sale – or by scaling down or liquidating. The context is favorable with respect to both the regulatory and the macro-economic environments. Risk is understood, and the team has considered ways to mitigate the impact of difficult events. In short, great businesses have the four parts of the framework completely covered. If only reality were so neat.
The People
When I receive a business plan, I always read the résumé section first. Not because the people part of the new venture is the most important, but because without the right team, none of the other parts really matters.
Who
I read the résumés of the venture team with a list of questions in mind. (See the insert "Who Are These People, Anyway?") All these questions get at the same three issues about the venture's team members: What do they know? Whom do they know? and How well they are known?
What and whom they know are matters of insight and experience. How familiar are the team members with industry players and dynamics? Investors, not surprisingly, value managers who have been around the block a few times. A business plan should candidly describe each team member's knowledge of the new venture's type of product or service; its production process; and the market itself, from competitors to customers. It also helps to indicate whether the team members have worked together before. Not played – as in roomed together in college – but worked.
Investors also look favorably on a team that is known because the real world often prefers not to deal with start-ups. They're too unpredictable. That changes, however, when the new company is run by people well known to suppliers, customers, and employees. Their enterprise may be brand new, but they aren't. The surprise element of working with a start-up is somewhat ameliorated.
* Where are the founders from?
* Where have they been educated?
* Where have they worked – and for whom?
* What have they accomplished – professionally and personally – in the past?
* What is their reputation within the business community?
* What experience do they have that is directly relevant to the opportunity they are pursuing?
* What skills, abilities, and knowledge do they have?
* How realistic are they about the venture's chances for success and the tribulations it will face?
* What else needs to be on the team?
* Are they prepared to recruit high-quality people?
* How will they respond to adversity?
* Do they have the mettle to make the inevitable hard choices that have to be made?
* How committed are they to this venture?
* What are their motivations?
Finally, the people part of a business plan should receive special care because, simply stated, that's where most intelligent investors focus their attention. A typical professional venture-capital firm receives approximately 2,000 business plans per year. These plans are filled with tantalizing ideas for new products and services that will change the world and reap billions in the process – or so they say. But the fact is, most venture capitalists believe that ideas are a dime a dozen: only execution skills count. As Arthur Rock, a venture capital legend associated with the formation of such companies as Apple, Intel, and Teledyne, states, "I invest in people, not ideas". Rock also has said, "If you can find good people, if they're wrong about the product, they'll make a switch, so what good is it to understand the product that they're talking about in the first place?"
Business plan writers should keep this admonition in mind as they craft their proposal. Talk about the people – exhaustively. And if there is nothing solid about their experience and abilities to herald, then the entrepreneurial team should think again about launching the venture.
The Opportunity
When it comes to the opportunity itself, a good business plan begins by focusing on two questions:
* Is the total market for the venture's product or service large, rapidly growing, or both?
* Is the industry now, or can it become, structurally attractive?
Entrepreneurs and investors look for large or rapidly growing markets mainly because it is often easier to obtain a share of a growing market than to fight with entrenched competitors for a share of a mature or stagnant market. Smart investors, in fact, try hard to identify high-growth-potential markets early in their evolution: that's where the big payoffs are. And indeed, many will not invest in a company that cannot reach a significant scale (that is, US$ 50 million in annual revenues) within five years.
As for attractiveness, investors are obviously looking for markets that actually allow businesses to make some money. But that's not the no-brainer it seems. In the late 1970s, the computer disk-drive business looked very attractive. The technology was new and exciting. Dozens of companies jumped into the fray, aide by an army of professional investors. Twenty years later, however, the thrill is gone for managers and investors alike. Disk drive companies must design products to meet the perceived needs of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end-users. Selling a product to OEMs is complicated. The customers are large relative to most of their suppliers. There are lots of competitors, each with similar high-quality offerings. Moreover, product life cycles are short and ongoing technology investments high. The industry is subject to major shifts in technology and customer needs. Intense rivalry leads to lower prices and, hence, lower margins. In short, the disk drive industry is simply not set up to make people a lot of money; it's a structural disaster area.
The information services industry, by contrast, is paradise. Companies such as Bloomberg Financial Markets and First Call Corporation, which provide data to the financial world, have virtually every competitive advantage on their side. First, they can assemble or create proprietary content – content that, by the way, is like life's blood to thousands of money managers and stock analysts around the world. And although it is often expensive to develop the service and to acquire initial customers, once up and running, these companies can deliver content to customers very cheaply. Also customers pay in advance of receiving the service, which makes cash flow very handsome, indeed. In short, the structure of the information services industry is beyond attractive: it's gorgeous. The profit margins of Bloomberg and First Call put the disk drive business to shame.
Thus, the first step for entrepreneurs is to make sure they are entering an industry that is large and/or growing, and one that's structurally attractive. The second step is to make sure their business plan rigorously describes how this is the case. And if it isn't the case, their business plan needs to specify how the venture will still manage to make enough of a profit that investors (or potential employees or suppliers, for that matter) will want to participate.
The Opportunity of a Lifetime – or Is It?
Nine Questions About the Business Every Business Plan Should Answer
Once it examines the new venture's industry, a business plan must describe in detail how the company will build and launch its product or service into the marketplace. Again, a series of questions should guide the discussion. (See the insert "The Opportunity of a Lifetime – or Is It?")
Often the answers to these questions reveal a fatal flaw in the business. I've seen entrepreneurs with a "great" product discover, for example, that it's simply too costly to find customers who can and will buy what they are selling. Economically viable access to customers is the key to business, yet many entrepreneurs take the Field of Dreams approach to this notion: build it, and they will come. That strategy works in the movies but is not very sensible in the real world.
* Who is the new venture's customer?
* How does the customer make decisions about buying this product or service?
* To what degree is the product or service a compelling purchase for the customer?
* How will the product or service be priced?
* How will the venture reach all the identified customer segments?
* How much does it cost (in time and resources) to acquire a customer?
* How much does it cost to support a customer?
* How easy is it to retain a customer?
It is not always easy to answer questions about the likely consumer response to new products or services. The market is a fickle as it is unpredictable. (Who would have guessed that plug-in room deodorizers would sell?) One entrepreneur I know proposed to introduce an electronic news-clipping service. He made his pitch to a prospective venture-capital investor who rejected the plan, stating, "I just don't think the dogs will eat the dog food". Later, when the entrepreneur's company went public, he sent the venture capitalist an anonymous package containing an empty can of dog food and a copy of his prospectus. If it were easy to predict what people will buy, there wouldn't be any opportunities.
Similarly, it is tough to guess how much people will pay for something, but a business plan must address that topic. Sometimes, the dogs will eat the dog food, but only at a price less than cost. Investors always look for opportunities for value pricing – that is markets in which the costs to produce the product are low, but consumers will still pay a lot for it. No one is dying to invest in a company when margins are skinny. Still, there is money to be made in inexpensive products and services – even in commodities. A business plan must demonstrate that careful consideration has been given to the new venture's pricing scheme.
The list of questions about the new venture's opportunity focuses on the direct revenues and the costs of producing and marketing the product. That's fine, as far as it goes. A sensible proposal, however, also involves assessing the business model from a perspective that takes into account the investment required – that is, the balance sheet side of the equation. The following questions should also be addressed so that investors can understand the cash flow implications of pursuing the opportunity:
* When does the business have to buy resources, such as supplies, raw materials, and people?
* When does the business have to pay for them?
* How long does it take to acquire a customer?
* How long before the customer sends the business a check?
* How much capital equipment is required to support a dollar of sales?
Investors, of course, are looking for businesses in which management can buy low, sell high, collect early, and pay late. The business plan needs to spell out how close to that ideal the new venture is expected to come. Even if the answer is "not very" – and it usually is – at least the truth is out there to discuss.
The opportunity section of a business plan must also bring a few other issues to the surface. First, it must demonstrate and analyze how an opportunity can grow – in other words, how the new venture can expand its range of products or services, customer base, or geographic scope. Often companies are able to create virtual pipelines that support the economically viable creation of new venture streams. In the publishing business, for example, Inc. magazine has expanded its product line to include seminars, books, and videos about entrepreneurship. Similarly, building on the success of its personal-finance software program Quicken, Intuit now sells software for electronic banking, small-business accounting, and tax preparation, as well as personal-printing supplies and on-line information services – to name just a few of its highly profitable ancillary spin-offs.
Now, lots of business plans runneth over on the subject of the new venture's potential for growth and expansion. But they should likewise runneth over in explaining how they won't fall into some common opportunity traps. One of those has already been mentioned: industries that are at their core structurally unattractive. But there are others. The world of invention, for example, is fraught with danger. Over the last 15 years, I have seen scores of individuals who have devised a better mousetrap – newfangled creations from inflatable pillows for use on airplanes to automated car-parking systems. Few of these idea-driven companies have really taken off, however. I'm not entirely sure why. Sometimes, the inventor refuses to spend the money required by or share the rewards sufficiently with the business side of the company. Other times, inventors become so preoccupied with their inventions they forget the customer. Whatever the reason, better-mousetrap business have an uncanny way of malfunctioning.
Another opportunity trap that business plans – and entrepreneurs in general – need to pay attention to is the tricky business of arbitrage. Basically, arbitrage ventures are created to take advantage of some pricing disparity in the marketplace. MCI Communications Corporation, for instance, was formed to offer long-distance service at a lower price that AT&T. Some of the industry consolidations going on today reflect a different kind of arbitrage – the ability to buy small businesses at a wholesale price, roll them up together into a larger package, and take them public at a retail price, all without necessary adding value in the process.
Taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities is a viable and potentially profitable way to enter a business. In the final analysis, however, all arbitrage opportunities evaporate. It is now a question of whether, only when. The trick in these businesses is to use the arbitrage profits to build a more enduring business model, and business plan must explain how and when that will occur.
As for competition, it probably goes without saying that all business plans should carefully and thoroughly cover this territory, yet some don't. That is a glaring omission. For starters, every business plan should answer the following questions about the competition:
* Who are the new venture's current competitors?
* What resources do they control? What are their strengths and weaknesses?
* How will they respond to the new venture's decision to enter the business?
* How can the new venture respond to its competitor's response?
* Who else might be able to observe and exploit the same opportunity?
* Are there ways to co-opt potential or actual competitors by forming alliances?
Business is like chess: to be successful, you must anticipate several moves in advance. A business plan that describes an insuperable lead or a proprietary market position is by definition written by naive people. That goes not just for the competition section of the business plan but for the entire discussion of the opportunity. All opportunities have promise; all have vulnerabilities. A good business plan doesn't whitewash the latter. Rather, it proves that the entrepreneurial team knows the good, the bad, and the ugly that the venture faces ahead.
The Context
Opportunities exist in a context. At one level is the macroeconomic environment, including the level of economic activity, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. At another level are the wide range of government rules and regulations that affect the opportunity and how resources are marshaled to exploit it. Examples extend from tax policy to the rules about raising capital for a private or public company. And at yet another level are factors like technology that define the limits of what a business or its competitors can accomplish.
Context often has a tremendous impact on every aspect of the entrepreneurial process, from identification of opportunity to harvest. In some cases, changes in some contextual factor create opportunity. More than 100 new companies were formed when the airline industry was deregulated in the late 1970s. The context for financing was also favorable, enabling new entrants like People Express to go to the public market for capital even before starting operations.
Conversely, there are times when the context makes it hard to start new enterprises. The recession of the early 1990s combined with a difficult financing environment for new companies: venture capital disbursements were low, as was the amount of capital raised in the public markets. (Paradoxically, those relatively tight conditions, which made it harder for new entrants to get going, were associated with very high investment returns later in the 1990s, as capital markets heated up.)
Sometimes, a shift in context turns an unattractive business into an attractive one, and vice versa. Consider the case of a packaging company some years ago that was performing so poorly it was about to be put on the block. Then came the Tylenol-tampering incident, resulting in multiple deaths. The packaging company happen to have a efficient mechanism for installing tamper-proof seals, and in a matter of weeks its financial performance could have been called spectacular. Conversely, U.S. tax reforms enacted in 1986 created havoc for companies in the real estate business, eliminating almost every positive incentive to invest. Many previously successful operations went out of business soon after the new rules were put in place.
Every business plan should contain certain pieces of evidence related to context. First, the entrepreneurs should show a heightened awareness of the new venture's context and how it helps or hinders their specific proposal. Second, and more important, they should demonstrate that they know the venture's context will inevitably change and describe how those changes might affect the business. Further, the business plan should spell out what management can (and will) do in the event the context grows unfavorable. Finally, the business plan should explain the ways (if any) in which management can affect context in a positive way. For example, management might be able to have an impact on regulations or on industry standards through lobbying efforts.
Risk and Reward
The concept that context is fluid leads directly to the fourth leg of the framework I propose: a discussion of risk and how to manage it. I've come to think of a good business plan as a snapshot of an event in the future. That's quite a feat to begin with – taking a picture of the unknown. But the best business plans go beyond that; they are like movies of the future. They show the people, the opportunity, and the context from multiple angles. They offer a plausible, coherent story of what lies ahead. They unfold possibilities of action and reaction.
Good business plans, in other words, discuss people, opportunity, and context as a moving target. All three factors (and the relationship among them) are likely to change over time as a company evolves from start-up to ongoing enterprise. Therefore, any business plan worth the time it takes to write or read needs to focus attention on the dynamic aspects of the entrepreneurial process.
Of course, the future is hard to predict. Still, it is possible to give potential investors a sense of the kind and class of risk and reward they are assuming with a new venture. All it takes is a pencil and two simple drawings. (See the insert "Visualizing Risk and Reward.") But even with these drawings, risk is, well, risky. In reality, there are no immutable distributions of outcomes. It is ultimately the responsibility of management to change the distribution, to increase the likelihood and consequences of success, and to decrease the likelihood and implications of problems.
One of the great myths about entrepreneurs is that they are risk seekers. All sane people want to avoid risk. As Harvard Business School professor (and venture capitalist) Howard Stevenson says, true entrepreneurs want to capture all the reward and give all the risk to others. The best business is a post office box to which people send cashier's checks. Yet risk is unavoidable. So what does that mean for a business plan?
It means that the plan must unflinchingly confront the risks ahead – in terms of people, opportunity, and context. What happens if one of the new venture's leaders leaves? What happens if a competitor responds with more ferocity that expected? What happens if there is a revolution in Namibia, the source of a key raw material? What will management actually do?
Those are hard questions for an entrepreneur to pose, especially when seeking capital. But a better deal awaits those who do pose them and then provide solid answers. A new venture, for example, might be highly leveraged and therefore very sensitive to interest rates. Its business plan would benefit enormously by stating that management intends to hedge its exposure through the financial-futures market by purchasing a contract that does well when interest rates go up. That is the equivalent of offering investors insurance. (It also makes sense for the business itself.)
Finally, one important area in the realm of risk/reward management relates to harvesting. Venture capitalists often ask if a company is "IPOable", by which they mean, Can the company be taken public at some point in the future? Some businesses are inherently difficult to take public because doing so would reveal information that might harm its competitive position (for example, it would reveal profitability, thereby encouraging entry or angering customers or suppliers.) Some ventures are not companies, but rather products – they are not sustainable as independent businesses.
Therefore, the business plan should talk candidly about the end of the process. How will the investor eventually get money out of the business, assuming it is successful, even if only marginally so? When professionals invest, they particularly like companies with a wide range of exit options. They like companies that work hard to preserve and enhance those options along the way, companies that don't, for example, unthinkingly form alliances with big corporations that could someday actually buy them. Investors feel a lot better about risk if the venture's endgame is discussed up front. There is an old saying, "If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there". In crafting sensible entrepreneurial strategies, just the opposite is true: you had better know where you might end up and have a map for getting there. A business plan should be the place where that map is drawn, for, as every traveler knows, a journey is a lot less risky when you have directions.
The Deal and Beyond
Once a business plan is written, of course, the goals is to land a deal. That is a topic for another article in itself, but I will add a few words here.
When I talk to young (and old) entrepreneurs looking to finance their venture, they obsess about the valuation and terms of the deal they will receive. Their explicit goal seems to be to minimize the dilution they will suffer in raising capital. Implicitly, they are also looking for investors who will remain as passive as a tree while they go about their business. On the food chain of investors, it seems, doctors and dentists are best and venture capitalists are worst because of the degree to which the latter group demands control and a large share of the returns.
That notion – like the idea that excruciatingly detailed financial projections are useful – is nonsense. From whom you raise capital is often more important than the terms. New ventures are inherently risky, as I've noted; what can go wrong will. When that happens, unsophisticated investors panic, get angry, and often refuse to advance the company more money. Sophisticated investors, by contrast, roll up their sleeves and help the company solve its problems. Often, they've had lots of experience saving sinking ships. They are typically process literate. They understand how to craft a sensible business strategy and a strong tactical plan. They know how to recruit, compensate, and motivate team members. They are also familiar with the Byzantine ins and outs of going public – an event most entrepreneurs face once in a lifetime. This kind of know-how is worth the money needed to buy it.
The is an old expression directly relevant to entrepreneurial finance: "Too clever by half." Often, deal makers get very creative, crafting all sorts of payoff and option schemes. That usually backfires. My experience has proven again and again that sensible deals have the following characteristics:
* They are simple.
* They are fair.
* They emphasize trust rather than legal ties.
* They do not blow apart if actual differs slightly from plan.
* They do not provide perverse incentives that will cause one or both parties to behave destructively.
* They are written on a pile of papers no greater than one-quarter inch thick.
But even these six simple rules miss an important point. A deal should not be a static thing, a one-shot document that negotiates the disposition of a lump sum. Instead, it is incumbent upon entrepreneurs, before they go searching for funding, to think about capital acquisition as a dynamic process – to figure out how much money they will need and when they will need it.
How is that accomplished? The trick is for the entrepreneurial team to treat the new venture as a series of experiments. Before launching the whole show, launch a little piece of it. Convene a focus group to test the product, build a prototype and watch it perform, conduct a regional or local rollout of a service. Such an exercise reveals the true economics of the business and can help enormously in determining how much money the new venture actually requires and in what stages. Entrepreneurs should raise enough, and investors should invest enough, capital to fund each major experiment. Experiments, of course, can feel expensive and risky. But I've seen them prevent disasters and help create successes. I consider it a prerequisite of putting together a winning deal.
Beware the Albatross
Among the many sins committed by business plan writers is arrogance. In today's economy, few ideas are truly proprietary. Moreover, there has never been a time in recorded history when the supply of capital did not outrace the supply of opportunity. The true half-life opportunity is decreasing with the passage of time.
A business plan must not be an albatross that hangs around the neck of the entrepreneurial team, dragging it into oblivion. Instead, a business plan must be a call for action, one that recognizes management's responsibility to fix what is broken proactively and in real time. Risk is inevitable, avoiding risk impossible. Risk management is the key, always tilting the venture in favor of reward and away from risk.
A plan must demonstrate mastery of the entire entrepreneurial process to harvest. It is not a way to separate unsuspecting investors from their money by hiding the fatal flaw. For in the final analysis, the only one being fooled is the entrepreneur.
We live today in the golden age of entrepreneurship. Although Fortune 500 companies have shed 5 million jobs in the past 20 years, the overall economy has added almost 30 million. Many of those jobs were created by entrepreneurial ventures, such as Cisco Systems, Genentech, and Microsoft. Each of those companies started with a business plan. Is that why they succeeded? There is no knowing for sure. But there is little doubt that crafting a business plan so that it thoroughly and candidly addresses the ingredients of success – people, opportunity, context, and the risk/reward picture – is vitally important. In the absence of a crystal ball, in fact, a business plan built of the right information and analysis can only be called indispensable.
Sample Table of Contents for a Business Plan
Cover letter
Cover sheet
Table of contents
Executive summary
Business concept
Name
Product or service
Market and competition
Management experience and expertise
Business goals
Summary of financial needs
Earnings projections
Market analysis
Total market analysis
Industry trends
Target market
Market competition
Product or service analysis
Product line or service description
Proprietary nature
Competitive threats
Marketing strategy
Overall strategy
Pricing policy
Selling, distribution, servicing methods
Management
Officers, organizational chart, and responsibilities
Résumés of key personnel
Composition of board of directors or advisors
Financial plan
Historical analysis
Budget projections
Income statement
Balance sheets
Cash flow
Capital expenditures
Explanation of projections
Key business ratios
Explanation of financing needs and anticipated use of funds
Three Keys to Obtaining Venture Capital
by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Introduction Understanding the Process Writing the Business Plan Preparing the Financials
A message to Entrepreneurs
From James D. Atwell, Global Managing Partner, Private Equity, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Three Keys to Obtaining Venture Capital is designed to help first-time entrepreneurs understand the venture capital process and provides a useful step-by-step tool for creating a business plan. Through this understanding and armed with a comprehensive and thorough business plan, an entrepreneur will have realistic expectations and can concentrate on targeting the financial search for the most promising investment sources.
PricewaterhouseCoopers is experienced in reviewing business plans and financial forecasts. We will help you make contacts and maintain good working relationships with venture capitalists. Our professionals will work with you to target appropriate funds and provide introductions.
Introduction to the Three Keys
1. 1. Understand the Process
To an entrepreneur seeking venture capital financing for the first time, an understanding of the venture capital process is essential. The venture capital industry includes many firms with substantial funds to invest; however, it is often a challenge to an entrepreneur to tap into this vital source of financing. This booklet is designed to ease the challenge by providing insights into obtaining venture capital financing.
The venture capital process begins with an introduction to a venture capitalist. Cold calling on venture capitalists is a long shot – venture capitalists see many "over the transom" deals, very few of which become investments. Introductions to venture capitalists through referral sources they respect improve the odds of securing financing. PricewaterhouseCoopers, with a leading position in serving the venture capital community, has this respect.
Target a Venture Capital Partner
Choosing the right venture capital firms is an important part of the fundraising process. An entrepreneur that has not researched and targeted venture firms runs the risk of lengthening the search and over shopping the plan. Venture capitalists readily exchange information, so rejection from one firm may influence others.
The criteria for selecting the right venture capitalists to approach include their geographic, industry specialization, stage of development, and size of investment preferences. Also important are whether there are complementary or competing investee ventures within the fund's portfolio.
The search of a fund's preferences can be done by obtaining literature from the funds directly, talking to venture backed entrepreneurs, visiting the PricewaterhouseCoopers MoneyTreeTM web site at http://www.pwcmoneytree.com, obtaining the quarterly Money Tree Report from your local PricewaterhouseCoopers professional. PricewaterhouseCoopers professionals are active in the venture community and welcome the opportunity to talk with you.
2. 2. Write a Business Plan
Often the first step in dealing with venture capitalists is to forward them a copy of the business plan. And, because venture capitalists have to deal with so many business plans, the plan must immediately grab the reader's attention. The executive summary will either entice venture capitalists to read the entire proposal or convince them not to invest further time.
A good plan is crucial for two reasons: first, as a management tool, and second, as a means to obtain financing. While the plan is an essential element in securing financing, it should also be an operating guide to the business, with the goals, objectives, milestones and strategies clearly defined and well-written. This is the best way to demonstrate the viability and growth potential of the business and to showcase the entrepreneur's knowledge and understanding of what is needed to meet the company's objectives. The first reading of a plan is the venture capitalist's initial opportunity to evaluate the individuals who will manage the business and to measure the potential for return on his investment.
The plan should address the following business issues from the perspective of the venture capitalist:
* Is the management team capable of growing the business rapidly and successfully?
* Have they done it before?
* Is the technology fully developed?
* Is the product unique, and what values does it create so that buyers will want to purchase the product or service?
* Is the market potential large enough?
* Does the team understand how to penetrate the market?
* Do significant barriers to entry exist?
* How much money is required and how will it be utilized?
* What exit strategies are possible?
If the plan is of interest, the entrepreneur will be contacted for the first of what will generally be several meetings, and the venture capitalists may begin the due diligence process. Since venture firms are in the business of making risk investments, one can be certain a thorough analysis of the company's business prospects, management team, industry, and financial forecasts will precede any investment.
Prepare for the Negotiation Process
Following due diligence, the successful venture will then enter into the negotiation process, where the structure and terms of financing will be determined. The entrepreneur must carefully prepare for this next step by becoming familiar with the various structures of venture capital financing and preparing a bargaining position after consulting with an attorney who has extensive venture capital experience. Attorneys will give guidance on the issues worth fighting for. Issues to consider are: vesting, salary, stock restrictions, commitment to the venture, debt conversion, dilution protection, downstream liquidity and directors. The negotiation will involve most or all of these issues in addition to price per share. However, price-per-share concerns should not be overriding interest; the end result of this process must be a win/win situation in order for the relationship to progress successfully. The last step is to document and close the transaction, resulting in a term sheet, investment agreement(s) and, finally, the closing.
3. 3. Prepare the Financials
Realistic financial forecasts within the business plan are important to attract investors and retain their interest to participate in future rounds of financing. The financials must accurately reflect the various product development, marketing, and manufacturing strategies described in each section of the plan.
The First Key: Understanding the Process
4. 1. Profile of a Typical Venture Capital Fund
Professionally managed venture capital funds provide seed, start-up and expansion financing as well as management/leveraged buyout financing. In addition to these distinctions, funds may also specialize in technology sectors such as life sciences, while others invest in a wide array of technology and non-technology arenas.
Venture capital firms are typically established as partnerships that invest money of their limited partners. The limiteds are usually corporate pension funds, governments, private individuals, foreign investors, corporations, insurance companies, endowment funds, and even other venture capital funds. When venture capital firms raise money from these sources, they group the money committed into a fund. A typical fund might close at US$ 75 – US$ 200 million and actively invest for three to five years. Since investors in venture capital funds have specific return-on-investment requirements, a venture capitalist must evaluate potential investments with a similar return on investment consideration.
Since the return on investment is critical, venture capitalists invest with certain criteria in mind. Many funds invest between US$ 4 – US$ 8 million in any one venture over a three- to five-year period and look for companies with market potential of US$ 75 – US$ 200 million. Since a venture fund typically invests in only 20-30 companies, each investment must be screened carefully. Venture capitalists will be looking for a 30% to 40%, or more, annual return on investment and for total return of 5 to 20 times their investment.
Venture capitalists are not passive investors and become involved as advisors to management, usually as members of the company's board of directors. By actively participating in investments, venture capitalists seek to maximize their return.
Just as venture capitalists perform due diligence, and entrepreneur must evaluate the benefits that a particular venture firm can provide the company.
* Do the venture capitalists have experience with similar types of investments?
* Do they take a highly active or passive management role?
* Are there competing companies in their portfolio?
* Are the personalities on both sides of the table compatible?
* Does the firm have strong syndication ties with other venture firms for additional rounds of financing?
* Can they help provide contacts for distribution channels and executive search?
5. 2. The Valuation Process
It is critical for an entrepreneur seeking venture capital to assess the value of the company from the perspective of the venture capitalist and to appreciate the dynamics of the entrepreneur/venture capitalist relationship. This relationship revolves around a trade-off. Funds for growth are exchanged for a share of ownership. The entrepreneur will be asked to give up a large share of ownership of the company, possibly a majority stake. The venture capitalist seeks to value the venture to provide a return on investment commensurate with the risk taken.
Entrepreneurs seek to raise as much money as they can while giving up as little ownership as possible. Venture capitalists strive to maximize their return on investment by putting in as little money as possible for the largest share of ownership. Through the negotiation process, the two parties come to agreement. Entrepreneurs understand that excess funding costs them equity. Venture capitalists must leave company founders with enough ownership to provide incentive to make the business succeed. To balance their individual goals, both parties should agree on one mutual goal – to grow as a successful enterprise.
The first step in the negotiation process is to determine the current value of the company. The most important factor in determining this "pre-money valuation", or the value of the venture prior to funding, is the stage of development of the company. A business with no product revenues, little expense history, and an incomplete management team will usually receive a lower valuation than a company with revenue that is operating at a loss. This is because the absence of one or more of these elements increases the risk of the venture's not succeeding. Each successive stage commands higher valuations as the business achieves milestones, confirms the ability of the management team, and progresses in reducing fundamental risks.
6. Stage I
Ventures have no product revenues to date and little or no expense history, usually indicating an incomplete team with an idea, plan, and possibly some initial product development.
7. Stage II
Ventures still have no product revenues, but some expense history suggesting product development is underway.
8. Stage III
Ventures show product revenues, but they are still operating at a loss.
9. Stage IV
Companies have product revenues and are operating profitably.
The best way to build value in a company is to achieve the goals and milestones within the timeframes designated in the business plan. As milestones are achieved, risk is reduced and subsequent rounds of financing can usually be raised at more attractive valuations.
10. 3. Pricing and Control: The Investor's Perspective
Pricing venture capital deals involves the estimated future values of the entity being financed and if highly subjective.
Theoretical approaches can be used to estimate the company's future value and the corresponding percentage ownership that the investor requires – in other words, estimated future value based on the venture's expected profitability and estimated earnings multiplies. The estimated percentage ownership the investor must receive can then be calculated to derive the desired return on investment.
As noted, venture capital investors expect an annual rate of return of 30% to 40% or more. The table below shows the percentage investment a venture capitalist would need to realize to support a 30% return on investment at various estimated market values. As shown, to realize a 30% return on an investment of US$ 4 million, a venture capitalist would need to own 32% percent of a company with an estimated future market value of US$ 60 million after six years. If the estimated future market value is higher, US$ 100 million for example, a smaller percentage ownership (19%) will provide the required rate of return.
11. Ownership Required to Support a 30% Return
Estimated Future Market Value of a Company in Six Years (in millions of US$)
Millions of Dollars Invested
US$ 20
US$ 40
US$ 60
US$ 80
US$ 100
2
48%
24%
16%
12%
10%
4
96%
48%
32%
24%
19%
6
N/A
72%
48%
36%
29%
8
N/A
96%
64%
48%
38%
10
N/A
N/A
80%
60%
48%
N/A = investment would not be made if the present value of the company's estimated future market value is less than the investment requested.
The Second Key: Writing the Business Plan
12. 1. Why Is a Business Plan Needed
A quality business plan is an important first step in convincing investors that the management team has the experience to build a successful enterprise. The plan also provides measurable operating and financial objectives for management and potential investors to measure the company's progress.
13. 2. Executive Summary
Business plans should be summarized into a short two- to three-page synopsis called the executive summary. The summary is used to capture the essence of the plan and generate interest so the reader further studies the full proposal. It is the most important section of the business plan and should be written last, ensuring that only vital information is included.
At many of the largest venture capital firms, fewer than 5% of the hundreds of plans received are reviewed beyond the executive summary. While sometimes this is because the business does not fit the type of investment favored by that firm, more often because the executive summary is not written convincingly or clearly enough. The summary must stand out and be noticed, and to do this it must be of the highest quality. The summary must be persuasive in conveying the company's growth and profit potential and management's prior relevant experience.
The effort taken in researching investor preferences and preparing a quality summary will set the plan apart and assure that it receives further consideration by venture capital firms.
14. 3. Executive Summary Outline
15. Company Overview
Generally, the investor wants to know – in a hurry – what product the company is developing, the market/industry it serves, a brief history, milestones completed (with dates), and a statement on the company's future plans. If the company is an ongoing business seeking expansion capital, the entrepreneur must summarize the company's financial and market performance to date.
16. Management Team
List the key members of the management team and technical advisors, including their age, qualifications, and work history. It is important to emphasize the team's relevant, proven track record. Note key open positions and how you intend to fill them.
17. Products and Services
Provide a short description of the product or service and highlight why it is unique. Discuss any barriers to entry that prevent further competition (e.g. patents). Mention the product's direct or indirect competition. If possible, briefly mention future product development plans such as upgrades or product line extensions in order to show the investor that the venture is not a one-product/service company.
18. Market Analysis
Define the target market to be served using recent market data and analyst's estimates of current and projected size and growth rates. Also note what percent of the market the company plans to capture. Mention the names of your largest current, well-known customers who have either purchased your product or given you letters of intent. It is important to discuss who will buy the product and why. Briefly note the distribution/selling strategies used in the industry and explain which one(s) you plan to use to penetrate the market.
19. Funds Requested and Uses
State the amount of money required and be specific in the description of the uses of the funds sought. Avoid such general terms as "working capital".
20. Summary of Five-Year Financial Projections
This section should summarize key financial projections through breakeven. Only projected revenues, net income, assets and liabilities should be listed. It is also useful to note additional expected rounds of financing needed.
1.1. Body of the Plan
21. 1. Company Overview
In this section one should fully describe the reason for founding the company and the general nature of the business. The investor must be convinced of the uniqueness of the business and gain a clear idea of the market in which the company will compete.
The entrepreneur's vision for the company's future production and operations strategy should also be described. An investor needs to be assured that the company is built around more than a product idea. The entrepreneur needs to demonstrate that a profitable business can be built based on the strategies detailed in the plan.
2. Products and Services
The business plan must convey to the reader that the company and product truly fill an unmet need in the marketplace. The characteristics that set the product/service and company apart from the competition need to be defined. It is also important to describe each of the end-user segments that will be targeted. A full profile of the end-users and the key potential applications of the product will demonstrate to an investor that the entrepreneur has done his/her marketing homework.
A description of the status of patents, copyrights and trade secrets is very important. It is equally imperative to describe barriers to entry. Keep in mind that patents are only as good as they are defensible.
The plan should list all major product accomplishments achieved to date as well as remaining milestones. This will give an investor a comfort level, knowing that the entrepreneur has tackled several hurdles and is aware of remaining hurdles and how to surmount them. Specific mention should be made of the results of alpha (internal) and beta (external with potential customers) product testing. If alpha or beta tests are upcoming, mention how these tests will be conducted.
Single product companies can be a concern for investors. It is always beneficial to include ideas and plans for future products/services. If the plan demonstrates the viability of several products, an investor will see an opportunity to grow a successful business.
3. Market Analysis
The analysis of market potential separates the inventors from entrepreneurs. Many good products are never successfully commercialized because their inventors don't stop to understand the market or assemble the management team necessary to capitalize on the opportunity.
This section of the business plan will be scrutinized carefully; market analysis should therefore be as specific as possible, focusing on believable, verifiable data.
* Market Research should contain a thorough analysis of the company's industry and potential customers.
* Industry Data should include growth rates, size of the market, recent technical advances, government regulations, and future trends.
* Customer Research should include the number of potential customers, the purchase rate per customer, and a profile of the decision-maker.
This research drives the sales forecast and pricing strategy, which relates to all other strategies in marketing, sales and distribution. Finally, comment on the percentage of the target market the company plans to capture.
4. Management and Ownership
Venture capitalists invest in people – people who have run or who are likely to run successful operations. Potential investors will look closely at the members of the company's management team. The team should have experience and talents in the key disciplines:
* technological development
* marketing
* sales
* manufacturing, and
* finance
This section of the plan should therefore introduce the members of your management team and what they bring to the business. Detailed résumés should be included in appendix.
The management team in most start-up companies includes only a few founders with varied backgrounds and an idea. If there are gaps in the team it is important to mention them and comment on how the positions will be filled. Glossing over a key unfilled position will raise red flags. Often, because venture capital investors have access to networks of management talent, they can provide a list of proven candidates appropriate for these crucial positions.
Include a list of the board of directors or advisors: key outside industry or technology experts who lend guidance and credibility. This is another area where empty positions may be filled from suggestions of a well-networked investor.
5. Marketing Plan
The primary purpose of the marketing section of a business plan is to convince the venture capitalist that the market can be developed and penetrated. The sales projections made in the marketing section will drive the rest of the business plan by estimating the rate of growth of operations and the financing required. The data should include an outline of plans for:
* Pricing
* Distribution channels, and
* Promotion
Pricing
The strategy used to price a product or service provides an investor with insight for evaluating the strategic plan. Explain the key components of the pricing decision, i.e., image, competitive issues, gross margins, and the discount structure for each distribution channel. Pricing strategy should also involve consideration of future product releases and future products.
Distribution Channels
A manufacturer's business plan should clearly identify the distribution channels that will get the product to the end-user. For a service provider, the distribution channels are not as important as are the means of promotion. Distribution options for a manufacturer may include:
* Direct Sales, such as mail order, direct contact through salespeople, and telemarketing;
* Original Equipment Manufacturing (OEM), integration of the product into other manufacturer's products;
* Distributors or Wholesalers; or
* Retailers.
Each of these methods has its own advantages and disadvantages and financial impact, and these should be clarified in the business plan. For example, assume the company decided to use direct sales because of the expertise required in selling the product. A direct salesforce increases control, but it requires a significant investment. A venture capitalist will look to the entrepreneur's expertise as a salesperson, or to the plans to hire, train and compensate an expert salesforce. If more than one distribution channel is used, they should all be compatible. For example, using both direct sales and wholesalers can create channel conflict if not managed well.
Fully explain the reasons for selecting these distribution approaches and the financial benefits they will provide. The explanation should include a schedule of projected prices, with appropriate discounts and commissions as part of the projected sales estimates. These estimates of profit margin and pricing policy will provide support for the decision.
Promotion
The marketing promotion section of the business plan should include plans for product sheets, potential advertising plans, Internet strategy, trade show schedules, and any other promotional materials. The venture capitalist must be convinced that the company has the expertise to move the product to market. A well-though-out promotional approach will set the business plan apart from the competition.
It is important to explain the thought process behind the selected sources of promotion and the reasons for those not selected.
6. Competition
A discussion of the competition is an essential part of the business plan. Every product or service has competition; even if the company is first-to-market, the entrepreneur must explain how the market's need is currently being met and how the new product will compete against the existing solution. The venture capitalist will be looking to see how and why the firm will beat the competition. The business plan should analyze the competition, giving strengths and weaknesses relative to the product. Attempt to anticipate competitive response to the product. Include, if possible, a direct product comparison based on price, quality, warranties, product updates, features, distribution strategies, and other means of comparison. Document the sources used in the analysis.
7. Operations
The operations section of the business plan should discuss the location and size of the facility. If one location is selected over another, be sure to include justification. Factors such as the availability of labor, accessibility of materials, proximity to distribution channels, and tax considerations should be mentioned. Describe the equipment and the facilities. If more equipment is required in response to production demands, include plans for financing. If the company needs international distribution, mention whether the operations facility will provide adequate support. If work will be outsourced to subcontractors, eliminating the need to expand facilities, state that, too. The investor will be looking to see if there are inconsistencies in the business plan.
If a prototype has not been developed or there is other uncertainty concerning production, include a budget and timetable for product development. The venture capitalist will be looking to see how flexible and efficient the facility plans are. The venture capitalist will also ask such questions as:
* If sales projections predict a growth rate of 25% per year, does the current site allow for expansion?
* Are there suppliers who can provide the materials required?
* Is there an educated labor force in the area?
These and any other factors that might be important to the investor should be included. The sales projections will determine the size of the operation and thereby the funds required both now and in the future. Include the sources and uses of financing in the business plan, and be certain the assumptions are realistic. The timing and the amount of funds will be derived from the sales estimates.
The Third Key: Preparing the Financials
1. The Purpose of Financial Forecasts
Developing a detailed set of financial forecasts demonstrates to the investor that the entrepreneur has thought out the financial implications of the company's growth plans. Good financial forecasts integrate the performance goals outlined in the plan into financial goals so that return on investment, profitability and cash-flow milestones can be clearly stated. Investors use these forecasts to determine if
a. the company offers enough growth potential to deliver the type of return on investment that the investor is seeking, and
b. the projections are realistic enough to give the company a reasonable chance or attaining them.
2. Content of Financial Forecasts
Investors expect to see a full set of cohesive financial statements, including a balance sheet, income statement, and cash-flows statement, for a period of three to five years. It is customary to show monthly statements until the breakeven point or profitability is reached. Thereafter, quarterly statements should be prepared for two years, followed by yearly data for the remaining timeframe. It also imperative that the forecasts include a footnote section that explains the major assumptions used to develop revenue and expense items. It is not advisable to "ramp up" sales and expenses is sequential fashion – this gives the impression that the financial implications of the plan have not been fully thought out. Prepare the financial projections as the final step in putting together the plan.
3. Examples of Financial Forecasts
The financial forecast illustrated below represent a fast-growth, technology-oriented manufacturing company. The forecasts are shown on a yearly basis. An actual business plan, however, should show monthly figures until breakeven and then quarterly statements for subsequent years. The assumptions are included as a guide and may not apply to all start-up companies. Be sure to consult your financial advisor.
Fast Track, Inc.
Income Statement (000s omitted)
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Product Sales
$1,197
$3,699
$7,500
$16,685
$37,349
Service Revenue
81
572
1,509
2,499
3,934
Total Revenue
1,278
4,271
9,009
19,184
41,283
Cost of Sales
Direct Materials
474
995
2,434
4,532
11,674
Overhead
164
705
900
1,860
2,708
Service Cost
41
286
755
1,250
1,967
Total Cost of Sales
679
1,986
4,089
7,642
16,349
Gross Margin
599
2,285
4,920
11,542
24,934
Operating Expenses
Engineering
270
462
618
1,158
1,958
Marketing / Sales
351
829
1,605
3,109
5,968
Administration
1,465
1,660
2,154
2,805
4,179
Total Operating Expense
2,086
2,951
4,377
7,072
12,105
Income Before Int. and Tax
(1,487)
(666)
543
4,470
12,829
Interest Expense
0
0
0
0
0
Interest Income
33
21
44
118
340
Income (loss) Before Taxes
(1,454)
(645)
587
4,588
13,169
Tax Expense
0
0
0
1,231
5,268
Net Income (loss)
$(1,454)
$(645)
$(587)
$3,357
$7,901
Fast Track, Inc.
Balance Sheet (000s omitted)
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Assets
Current Assets
Cash
$365
$657
$548
$363
$2,332
Accounts Receivable, Net
256
1,452
2,152
5,522
10,991
Inventory
211
909
1,312
2,775
6,753
Total Current Assets
832
3,018
4,012
8,660
20,076
Property, Plant and Equipment
64
137
248
430
690
Less Accumulated Depreciation
14
50
115
215
366
Net Property, Plant and Equipment
50
87
133
215
324
Other Long-Term Assets
Organization Costs
5
5
5
0
0
Less Accumulated Amortization
2
4
5
0
0
Total Other Long-Term Assets
3
1
0
0
0
Total Assets
$885
$3,106
$4,145
$8,875
$20,400
Liabilities
Short-Term Liabilities
Accounts Payable
114
282
473
999
2,609
Accrued Expense
191
329
503
848
1,398
Salaries Payable
10
20
31
42
83
Taxes Payable
0
0
0
308
1,317
Total Short-Term Liabilities
315
631
1,007
2,197
5,407
Long-Term Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
0
0
0
0
0
Reserve for Warranty
24
74
150
333
747
Total Long-Term Liabilities
24
74
150
333
747
Tax Liabilities
339
705
1,157
2,530
6,154
Equity
Common Stock
500
500
500
500
500
Preferred Stock
1,500
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
Retained Earnings
(1,454)
(2,099)
(1,512)
1,845
9,746
Total Equity
546
2,401
2,988
6,345
14,246
Liabilities and Equity
$885
$3,106
$4,145
$8,875
$20,400
Fast Track, Inc.
Statement of Cash Flows (000s omitted)
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net Income (loss)
$(1,454)
$(645)
$ 587
$3,357
$7,901
Add: items not requiring cash in the current period
Depreciation / Amortization
16
38
66
100
151
Changes in Operating Assets and Liabilities
Assets and Liabilities
Accounts Receivable
(256)
(1,196)
(700)
(3,370)
(5,469)
Inventory
(211)
(698)
(403)
(1,463)
(3,978)
Accounts Payable
114
168
191
526
1,610
Accrued Expense
191
138
174
345
550
Salaries Payable
10
10
11
11
41
Taxes Payable
0
0
0
308
1,009
Reserve for Warranty
24
50
76
183
414
Other Long-Term Assets
(5)
0
0
0
0
Net Cash Provided by (used in) Operating Activities
(1,571)
(2,135)
2
0
2,229
Cash Flows from Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures
(64)
(73)
(111)
(182)
(260)
Net Cash Used in Investing Activities
(64)
(73)
(111)
(182)
(260)
Cash Flows from Financing Equity Investment
2,000
2,500
0
0
0
Net Cash Provided by Financing Activities
2,000
2,500
0
0
0
Change in Cash
365
292
(109)
(185)
1,969
Cash, Beginning of Year
0
365
657
548
363
Cash, End of Year
$365
$657
$548
$363
$2,232
Fast Track, Inc.
Summary of Financial Assumptions
Sales:
The sales forecast for product reflects the following unit and pricing assumptions:
Year
Units
Unit Price
Product Revenues*
Service Revenues
Total Revenues
1
42
$28,500
$1,197
$ 81
$1,278
2
137
27,000
3,699
572
4,271
3
300
25,000
7,500
1,509
9,009
4
710
23,500
16,685
2,499
19,184
5
1,690
22,100
37,349
3,934
41,283
* 000s omitted: small rounding adjustment included
* Product revenue is recognized at time of shipment
* Declining unit prices reflect savings from economies of scale as well as a more competitive environment beginning in year two.
* Total revenue reflects the company's target of owning 10% of the market by year five
* Service revenue increases are due to growing product-installed base
Expenses:
* Salaries are based on competitive compensation
* Operating expenses include estimates for supplies, travel and telephone
Balance Sheet:
* Accounts receivable are collected 72 days from sales (turnover rate of five times a year)
* The reserve for warranty is 2% of product sales
* Organizational costs are amortized over three years
* Inventory is assumed to turn on average three times a year.
* Fixed assets include both purchased equipment and leasehold improvements
* Depreciation is based on three- to five-year lives
* Accounts payable reflect a 60-day payment cycle
* Accrued expense includes overhead cost, service cost and operating cost for one month
* Salaries are paid bi-monthly
* Taxes are paid in the month following each fiscal quarter and are assumed to be at a combined rate of 40%
* Income tax expense assumes that losses will carry forward until income is earned. Years three and four tax expenses are reduced by the net loss carryforwards of prior years
* Preferred and common stock are issued as shown
Cash-Flows Statement:
* The cash flows statement is based on the spending and payment decisions of the income and balance sheets
* Equity investment includes founders' and initial investors' common stock of $500,000, plus the venture capitalists' investment of $1,500,000
How Investors Read a Business Plan
A potential investor will initially spend only 5 minutes with your plan. The following areas will be evaluated, each area taking about 1 minute!
1. Determine the characteristics of (1) the industry and (2) this particular company.
* What other publicly held similar companies are there?
* Is there a larger company that is extremely successful?
* Is the company in a 'glamour field'? (important to ensure a good public offering)
2. Determine the terms of the deal.
* How much of the company is being sold for what price?
* What is the form of debt or equity being requested?
* How will the funds be used?
o To retire old debt (bad idea)?
o To undertake new activities that will, in turn, increase profitability?
3. Review the bottom line with special emphasis on years three through five.
* Earnings or potential earnings are reviewed to determine company's valuation.
* Sensitivity analysis, or what if analysis to see how the business model adjusts to changing prices, expenses and competition.
4. Determine the caliber of the people in the deal. (The most important aspect of the business plan!)
* What is the track record of the founders and managers?
* How much balance and experience does the inner management team possess?
* How long have the members worked together?
* Who are the banker and accountant, and what are their credentials?
5. The marketing plan is reviewed with careful consideration to current and future threats.
* Is the product or service in demand now or will it be in the near future?
* What is the Unique Selling Proposition for the product?
* What other company or companies are already in this space that could leap frog this business?
* Can the customer be easily identified and marketed to successfully?
QUESTIONS ANSWERED BY THE BUSINESS PLAN
1. How much can I make?
2. How much can I lose? (including loan guarantees, opportunity cost, and non-financial considerations)
3. What is unique, innovative or technologically different?
4. What is the perceived value of your product versus what your product actually does?
5. Why will everyone need your product or service?
6. What will happen to your customers if they don't buy your product or service?
7. Who says this is a good investment?
BUSINESS PLAN DO's AND DON'Ts
1. DO keep the business plan as short as possible without compromising the description of your venture and its potential. Venture investors are NOT patient readers.
2. DON'T over-diversify your venture. Focus attention on one or two key products or services.
3. DON'T have unnamed, "mysterious" people on your management team. A 'Mr. G. who is CFO of XYZ, Corp.' who will join your company later.
4. DON'T describe technical products or manufacturing processes with jargon that only an expert can understand.
5. DON'T estimate your sales on the basis of what you can or would like to produce.
6. DON'T make ambiguous, vague or unsubstantiated statements. Be precise about market size, rates, etc.
7. DO involve your management team in the preparation of the business plan.
8. Do disclose any current or potential problems with your venture.
While a well prepared business plan is never a guarantee that your business will be funded, it can increase the odds in your favor.
1 Venture Capital
2 شرکتی در صنعت است، که به عنوان هدف، قسمت هایی از بازار را که دیگران به آن توجهی نکرده اند، برمی گزیند.
3 Business Plan
4 اطلاعات، رخدادها یا مراحل استراتژیک در روند کار.
5 Iran Foreign Investment Company
6 Islamic Corporation for Development
7 Islamic Development Bank
8 Saudi Economic & Development Co
9 Golf Foreign House
10 Internet Service Provider
11 Net Operative After Tax
—————
————————————————————
—————
————————————————————
5